12/06/2019

No sunspots again this week. This run of zero sunspots has persisted for over three weeks.

In last week's bulletin, we erroneously said that average daily sunspot number for the week was 70.4, but as KB8W pointed out this was the value of average daily solar flux. Average daily solar flux for this week, November 28 through December 4, was 70.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average planetary A index declining from 8.3 to 3.4, while average mid-latitude A index slipped from 5.7 to 2.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70, in fact that is the value forecast for every one of those days, all the way through January 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 6-7, then 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-17, then 12, 10, 8 and 8 on December 18-21, 5 on December 22-29, 8 on December 30-31, 5 on January 1-3, 8 on January 4, 5 on January 5-8, 6 on January 9, 5 on January 10-13, then 12, 10, 8 and 8 again on January 14-17, and 5 on January 18-19.

Spaceweather.com pointed out the Geminid meteor shower is coming up soon, peaking December 13-14, just in time for the ARRL Ten Meter Contest next week on December 14-15. Ionized meteor trails may enhance 10-meter propagation. This article from 2012 describes the source of the Geminids: https://go.nasa.gov/2LqsH7G[1]. This year the full moon appears on December 12, which may interfere with viewing the meteor shower.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 6-31, 2019

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: December 12, 15-17, 23, 28-31
quiet to unsettled on: December 9-11, 13, 24-27
quiet to active on: December 6-8, 14, 18, 22
unsettled to active on: December 21
active to disturbed: (19-20)

Solar wind will intensify on: December (13-14, 16,) 18-21
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle now.

Updates on the Parker Solar Probe (thanks to Max White): https://nyti.ms/2DNWMdf[2] and https://go.nasa.gov/2LtTsrX[3]

Thanks to David Moore for this on solar magnetic waves: https://bit.ly/34YZMPS[4]

Jon Jones, N0JK reported on 6 meter sporadic-e on December 4: "The winter sporadic-E season began with a strong, long lasting Es opening across North America and the Caribbean December 4. Es first appeared early around 1400z from W5 to W8 and lasted all day to 0040z December 5.

"I was on from home (Lawrence, KS EM28) around 1830z and made a dozen 6-meter FT8 contacts in Florida and Georgia.

"Later while driving from Lawrence to Salina, I stopped on highway 177 south of Manhattan, Kansas (EM18) and set up a "fixed mobile" station. I was operating with just 10 watts and a 1/4 wavelength magnet mount antenna. I made seven FT8 contacts with Florida, Georgia, and Virginia. I was called by WA1EAZ in FN42 and decoded WU1ITU FN65 several times. N0LL (EM09) decoded HH2AA, but no contact. Other DX included TI5/N5BEK, XE1MEX, XE2AT, XE2JS, HI8DL, HI8PLE, KP4EIT, HI8RD, NP3XF, NP4BM, and LU5FF Es - TEP by KW4BY."

The Royal Observatory of Belgium (http://www.sidc.be/silso/home[5]) has an interesting page showing sunspot number predictions for the next 12 months: http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[6]

Thanks to Max White for this, on observing the ionosphere from Antarctica: https://bit.ly/2Lsh14w[7]

Found this on Galileo's sunspot drawings, presented as animation: https://bit.ly/365Xi2r[8]

The ARRL 160 meter contest begins today at 2200 UTC. The predicted quiet geomagnetic conditions are a good sign. See http://www.arrl.org/160-meter[9] for details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected].[10]

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[16].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17].

Sunspot numbers for November 28 through December 4, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.8, 70.4, 71.2, 70.4, 69.9, and 69.6, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 4, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 3.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, and 2, with a mean of 2.

�


[1] https://go.nasa.gov/2LqsH7G
[2] https://nyti.ms/2DNWMdf
[3] https://go.nasa.gov/2LtTsrX
[4] https://bit.ly/34YZMPS
[5] http://www.sidc.be/silso/home
[6] http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
[7] https://bit.ly/2Lsh14w
[8] https://bit.ly/365Xi2r
[9] http://www.arrl.org/160-meter
[10] mailto:[email protected].x
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/propagation
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/13/2019

Spaceweather.com reports that Wednesday, December 11 was the 28th consecutive day with zero sunspots. To date in 2019, 77% of days had no sunspots. Compare this to the previous solar minimum, when 2008 had zero sunspots on 73% of days and 2009 the number of spotless days stood at 71%.

Average daily solar flux this week (December 5-11) was 70.7, up marginally from the previous week when average flux values were 70.2.

At the bottom of the solar cycle there is hardly any geomagnetic activity, with average daily planetary A index at 3.7 and average middle latitude A index at 1.9. That is very quiet and is favorable to propagation on 160 meters.

Just like the report in last week's bulletin, predicted solar flux is 70 on each of the next 45 days, through January 26.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 13-16, then 8, 12, 8, 8 and 10 on December 17-21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, then 5 on January 6-8, then 8 on January 9-10, 5 on January 11-13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15-17, and 5 on January 18-26.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 13, 2019-January 07, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on: December 15-17, 28-31, January 1-4
Quiet to unsettled on: December 23-25
Quiet to active on: December (13-) 14, 22, January 7
Unsettled to active on: December 18, 21, (26-27,) January 5-6 active to Disturbed: (19-20)

Solar wind will intensify on: December (13-14, 16,) 18-21, (26,) January 7

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle at present stage of development.

G4KSG reported on December 9 at 0900 UTC hearing a conversation on 20-meter SSB between an EA7 and JA3, with his dipole at 30 feet.�Checking W6ELprop on that date it looks like signals between Spain and Japan would peak (just barely) around 0730 UTC but fade by 0900. Between England and Japan signals would be peaking around 0700-0800 UTC, then fading. From Spain to England, signals might be marginal at 0900, but then improving with the best time from 1030-1400 UTC. So even with no sunspots, propagation still happens.

K6XC reported on December 9 that 10 meters appeared dead, but at 2020 UTC he worked ZL1SW using FT8. He used a hexbeam at 40 feet pointed at 60 degrees. Short path to ZL1SW from K6XC is 226.7 degrees, and long path is 46.7 degrees.

Two recent articles from Nature on the Parker Solar Probe: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03665-3[1] and https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03684-0[2]

The ARRL Ten Meter Contest is this weekend, starting Friday night in North America. Check http://www.arrl.org/contests[3]

Although we are currently at solar minimum, conditions may be enhanced by the Geminids meteor shower. Monitoring http://www.livemeteors.com/[4] suggests a fair amount of activity. Check this for more information on how this service works: http://www.livemeteors.com/how-does-this-work[5]

Check this out: a new prediction for the end of Cycle 24 and new Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/2Eavjms[6]

K8MKN wrote: "Here's a suggestion, especially with all these zero reports of sunspots. Can you do a flashback to what the sunspot readings were a year ago or two years ago, or maybe 11 years ago? It might be interesting to put it in context with what's going on today."

Here are the bulletins from 2013-2018, with sunspot numbers toward the bottom: http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2018[7]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2017[8]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2016[9]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2015[10]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2014[11]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2013[12]

They show average daily sunspot numbers (working backwards) of 9.7, 2.3, 40.9, 48, 88.4, and 102.9.

The latest video from WX6SWW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzA57ZxBspY&t=8s[13]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][14].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[15] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[16]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[17].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[18]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[19].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[20].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[21].

Sunspot numbers for December 5 through 11, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.7, 70.3, 70.2, 71.6, 70.7, 70.6, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, and 6, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 1.9.

�


[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03665-3
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03684-0
[3] http://www.arrl.org/contests
[4] http://www.livemeteors.com/
[5] http://www.livemeteors.com/how-does-this-work
[6] https://bit.ly/2Eavjms
[7] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2018
[8] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2017
[9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2016
[10] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2015
[11] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2014
[12] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP050/2013
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzA57ZxBspY&t=8s
[14] mailto:[email protected]
[15] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[16] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[17] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[18] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[19] http://k9la.us/
[20] http://arrl.org/propagation
[21] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/20/2019

Still no sunspots, and it's been the same for 37 consecutive days.

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until "a minor stream of solar wind" (according to Spaceweather.com) hit us on December 18. This drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single digit values earlier in the week.

Average planetary A index for December 12-18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7 over the previous 7 days, while mid-latitude A index increased from 1.9 to 4.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, and we've seen this same daily 45-day flux forecast since December 2. December 1 was the last time there was any value in the forecast other than 70 when they predicted 69 for December 23 through January 4. The forecast is updated daily at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/[1] .

Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 8 on December 20-21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on January 6-8, 8 on January 9-10, 5 on January 11-13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15-17, 5 on January 18-31, 8 on February 1, and 5 on January 2.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 20, 2019 until January 15, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: December 28-31, January 1-4, 8
Quiet to unsettled on: December 21-27, January 7, 9-13
Quiet to active on: (December 20, January 5-6)
Unsettled to active on: (January 14-15)
There are no disturbed conditions in this forecast.

Solar wind will intensify on: January (14,) 15 (-16)

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle at present stage of development.

Naturally, because of weak solar activity, the ARRL 10 Meter Contest last weekend was rather slow. Jon Jones, N0JK from Kansas wrote: "With a solar flux of 70 and a low K index, not much F-layer propagation was expected in the 2019 ARRL 10-Meter contest.

"But Sunday afternoon I found a strong 10 Meter opening to Argentina and Chile from Kansas. I set up 'fixed mobile' with 5 watts and a 1/4 wave whip on the car at around 1800z December 15. I didn't expect much, but heard several very loud stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ in the log. Signals were up to 599. I wonder if this was a 'Es - TEP' opening?

"When I got home, I checked DXMaps. It showed what appeared to be an Es cloud over Louisiana. This may have supported 10 Meter propagation on to CE and LU. Es can raise the MUF when the signal hits the F-Layer and are often strong. It was a nice treat for an otherwise slow contest."

Here at K7RA using a very limited low-elevation random-wire antenna, I checked 10 meters in the last hour of the contest on Sunday looking to hand out a few contacts. I heard no local stations here in the Seattle area on SSB but did manage to work some CW operators.

N8II reported the following to the 3830 contesting forum (excerpts): "The F2 opening to the south was much better Saturday. The Geminids meteor shower did coincide with the contest this year which saved the day especially for the big guns.

"Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I was able to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there was some activity from most of the states/provinces within the approximate 1500-mile meteor-scatter range. For example, I worked all W1 except RI and all of eastern Canada except NL, PE and NU. I worked 4 NB stations, about 1-2 via brief sporadic E.

"There was a short sporadic E opening late Sunday around 2127-2205Z to TX, AR, IA but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder with most stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out around 1600Z Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from 2016-2057Z. It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here; I guess many locations in PY have high noise levels."

Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh[2]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][3].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.5, 68.9, 70.3, 71, 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a mean of 4.

�


[1] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[2] https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/27/2019

Still no sunspots, and it's been the same for 37 consecutive days.

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until "a minor stream of solar wind," according to Spaceweather.com[1], hit us on December 18. This drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single-digits earlier in the week.

Average planetary A index for December 12 - 18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7 over the previous 7 days, while mid-latitude A index increased from 1.9 to 4.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, and we've seen this same daily 45-day flux forecast since December 2. December 1 was the last time there was any value in the forecast other than 70 when they predicted 69 for December 23 through January 4. The forecast[2] is updated daily.

Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 8 on December 20 - 21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on January 6 - 8, 8 on January 9 - 10, 5 on January 11 - 13, 12 on January 14, 10 on January 15 - 17, 5 on January 18 - 31, 8 on February 1, and 5 on January 2.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 20 until January 15 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be...


o Quiet on: December 28 - 31, January 1 - 4, 8


o Quiet to unsettled on: December 21 - 27, January 7, 9 - 13


o Quiet to active on: (December 20, January 5 - 6)


o Unsettled to active on: (January 14 - 15)


o There are no disturbed conditions in this forecast.


o Solar wind will intensify on: January (14,) 15 ( - 16)



(Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.)

Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle.

Naturally because of weak solar activity, the 10 meter contest last weekend was rather slow.

Jon Jones, N0JK, from Kansas wrote:

"With a solar flux of 70 and a low K index, not much F-layer propagation was expected in the 2019 ARRL 10 Meter Contest. But Sunday afternoon I found a strong 10-meter opening to Argentina and Chile from Kansas. I set up fixed mobile with 5 W and a quarter-wave whip on the car around 1800 UTC December 15. I didn't expect much, but heard several very loud stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ in the log. Signals were up to 599. I wonder if this was a 'Es/TEP' opening?

"When I got home, I checked DXMaps[3]. It showed what appeared to be an Es cloud over Louisiana. This may have supported 10-meter propagation to CE and LU. Es can raise the MUF when the signal hits the F-Layer and are often strong. A nice treat for an otherwise slow 10 Meter Contest."

Here at K7RA, using a very limited low-elevation random-wire antenna, I checked 10 meters in the last hour of the contest on Sunday looking to hand out a few QSOs. I heard no local stations here in the Seattle area on SSB, but did manage to work some CW operators.

N8II reported to the [email protected][4] forum:

"The F2 opening to the south was much better Saturday. The Geminids meteor shower did coincide with the contest this year which saved the day especially for the big guns.

"Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I was able to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there was some activity from most of the states/provinces within the approximate 1500 mile MS range. For example, I worked all W1 except RI, and all of eastern Canada except NL, PE, and NU. I worked four NB stations, one or two of them via brief sporadic E.

"There was a short sporadic E opening late Sunday around 2127 - 2205 UTC to TX, AR, IA, but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder with most stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out around 1600 Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from 2016 - 2057Z. It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here; I guess many locations in PY have high noise levels."

Here's a new forecast[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for December 12 - 18 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.5, 68.9, 70.3, 71, 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a mean of 4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts[10] offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
[3] https://www.dxmaps.com/
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/03/2020

Sunspots appeared recently, all indicating cycle 25 due to their polarity, opposite from spots in cycle 24. Sunspots appeared December 24-26, and it looks like a new cycle 25 spot on January 1. NOAA did not report it (too weak?) but Spaceweather.com reported a sunspot number of 11 on January 1.

On January 2 NOAA reported the new spot with a sunspot number of 23.

Sorry, but the final propagation bulletin of 2019 was not sent out due to a misunderstanding on my part, so the usual paragraph of numbers at the bottom of this bulletin has an additional paragraph for last week.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is higher than recent forecasts. Solar flux is predicted at 72 on January 3-10, 70 on January 11, 72 on January 12-25, 70 on January 26 through February 7, and 72 on February 8-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 3-13, then 12 on January 14-15, 5 on January 16-25, 8 on January 26-28, 5 on January 29 through February 9, 10 on February 10-11, and 5 on February 12-16.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 3-29, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on January 3-4, 8, 29
quiet to unsettled on January 5-7, 9-13, 18-21, 25-28
quiet to active on (January 14, 17, 22-24)
unsettled to active on (January 15-16)
No active to disturbed days predicted

Solar wind will intensify on January (14,) 15-16, (17, 22-24)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Everything suggests that we are very, very close to the minimum of the 11-year cycle.

Dick, K1HC, wrote on December 31: "I was on FT8 on 2 meters yesterday from home in FN42 (400 watts and four 12-element Yagis) at about 1630 UTC, and I was watching the PSK Reporter website to see if I was reaching any other stations. I saw that K2DRH in EN41 had received my FT8 signal at -14dB. With that being over 900 miles away, I went to the ON4KST chat page and tried to contact K2DRH there without luck. He was logged in but may have been tied up or away from the computer.

"I am wondering if it was a meteor scatter long burn rather than sporadic E propagation. However, I switched to MSK144, and I did not see any pings from any other stations. I went to higher power, about 700 watts, and had no further spots on the PSK Reporter from the Midwest.

"I thought you would be interested in the unusual propagation. I will hope for more of it during the ARRL VHF contest in January from FN53 in Maine!"

Goodness! 48 elements in phase and 400 watts with FT8? With that gear, seems like anything may be possible.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][1].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

Sunspot numbers for December 19 through 25, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 24, and 23, with a mean of 6.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70, 70.6, 71, 72.6, 72.7, and 72.1, with a mean of 71.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 12, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

Sunspot numbers for December 26, 2019 through January 1, 2020 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 72.4, 72.2, 72, 70.9, 70.5, and 71.8, with a mean of 71.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 0, 0, 2, 4, and 3, with a mean of 2.

�


[1] mailto:[email protected]
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/10/2020

A single new Cycle 25 sunspot appeared over the past week, January 1 through January 8. NOAA did not record or number the new spot until January 2, but Spaceweather.com indicated it (sunspot region 2755) began on January 1.

Then another new Cycle 25 spot emerged on Thursday, January 9, with a daily sunspot number of 14. I was excited to see Spaceweather.com post "Solar Cycle 25 Continues to Intensify."

Average daily sunspot number rose from 3.1 to 8.4. The solar flux average rose insignificantly from 71.7 to 71.8. Geomagnetic indicators were slightly higher, with average planetary A index increasing from 3.1 to 6.3, and average middle latitude A index rising from 2 to 5.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on January 10-12, 72 on January 13-25, 70 on January 26 through February 7, and 72 on February 8-22 and 70 on February 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 10, 5 on January 11-12, 8 on January 13, 10 on January 14-15, 8 on January 16, 5 on January 17-31, then 8, 8 and 5 on February 1-3, 10 on February 4-6, 5 on February 7-9, 10 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-22 and 8 on February 23.

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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 10 until February 5, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on January 12-13, 18-19, 29-30
Quiet to unsettled on January 10-11, 20-21, 24-28, February 5
Quiet to active on (January 14, 16-17, 22-23, 31, February 1-4)
Unsettled to active on (January 15)

Solar wind will intensify on January 14-16, (17, 22-24,) February 4-6

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Jon Jones, N0JK sent this 6-meter report from Kansas on January 8: "Sporadic-E was scarce in December 2019 after early openings the first week. Six meters came back to life the last couple of days. Sporadic-E was reported on January 6, 7, 8 and 9. The most widespread Es was on the 8th with most of the eastern half of North America taking part. Stations began making Es contacts around 1800z (Illinois to Texas) and it lasted until 0035z January 9. From eastern Kansas, I worked W1, W2, W3 and W4 around 2200z. Best DX was to WA1EAZ (FN42) and K1SIX (FN42). N0LL (EM09) and N0YO (EM18) made many Es contacts.

"Later I set up "fixed mobile" with 10 watts and 1/4 wave whip south of Manhattan, Kansas. I worked a very loud KN4NN (EM60) at 0032z January 9 at the opening's end.

"The Quadrantids meteor shower peaked earlier than predicted January 4 at 0500z with a ZHR of 125. At that time the shower radiant was too low to be usable for meteors for North America. Larry, N0LL, was operating portable from rare grid EN02 the morning of the 4th. He was on the air at about 1200z on 6-meter msk144 and made over 20 contacts. The ZHR at this time was only around 25, but still higher than normal."

Jeff, N8II, reported from West Virginia on January 3: "Several long time 160 operators agree with me that during the Stew Perry Top Band DX Challenge on January 28-29 we had some of the best DX conditions ever in a 160 meter event! I was not able to operate full time, but with my 100W and half sloper antenna (starting at 80 feet high), I was able to work 34 European stations in just the 05Z hour (the total was about 20 higher), which is near sunrise in Central and Eastern Europe. Some signals were very strong. I worked multiple stations each in Russia, Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania. Also worked was D4Z in Cape Verde, LU8DPM in Argentina (best DX), and OH0R in the Aland Islands.

"Conditions on almost all nights recently have been excellent on 80 and 160 meters. Hannes, DK1NO, is routinely S9 +20dB on 75-meter phone around 23-24Z. After months of not hearing him, I managed to work Santi, VU2GSM, in India on both 40 and 80-meter CW in the past 2 weeks. He operates nearly every day based on the DX cluster spots. I also heard UA9BA in Asiatic Russia with a good signal on 160-meter CW on January 2 at around 0215Z working a European. I have added many new band-slot countries to my log in the past 3 weeks on the low bands.

"Twenty-meter conditions virtually every day are excellent to Central and Western Europe. Fifteen meters has been nearly closed to Europe, but I hear occasional stations in the Mediterranean area around 14-15Z and most days the band is open to Africa well with very sparse activity.

"Ten meters has been essentially dead for F2 propagation recently and sporadic E has been very limited compared to seasonal norms. We did have a good Es opening during the ARRL 10-Meter Contest to Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin on the second Saturday morning of December. The primary mode of ionospheric propagation during the contest was meteor scatter enhanced by the Geminids meteor shower. There was an opening to South America Saturday afternoon."

N8II reported on January 9: "Propagation has been quite interesting this week with unexpected happenings on 160 through 10 meters. On January 6 there was a good but poorly attended 15-meter opening to Europe; OK2PAY in the Czech Republic was worked 599 at 1354Z followed by IW5EKR/M on 15 SSB at 1403Z. I also worked VA2RF in Quebec just north of the Maine border. I strongly suspect a sporadic E on the North American end to an F2 link for this opening. I then had a big run of about 20 Western European stations on 20-meter SSB from 1530-1630Z (1630 is a bit late for good conditions). The 7th seemed down from normal, but I did work France, Spain, and Daniel, ZD7DL, on St. Helena Island on 17 meters at around 1600Z.

"Last evening, January 8, there was strong sporadic E on 10-meter SSB from 2200-2225Z. I logged stations in Mississippi, Texas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa. After a dinner break at 2322Z, I logged 3D2AG/P on Rotuma Island at 2322Z on 17-meter CW at about 80 minutes past sunset thanks to the Es-to-F2 link to the west.�Starting at 2327Z there was a best-it-ever-gets opening to Europe on 160-meter CW. IK5ZUK in Italy averaged S9+20db and I also worked very loud IK5ZUL, as well as Romania, Spain, England, Denmark, and Sweden.

"Today, January 9, there was another very intense sporadic E opening on 10-meters SSB from 2126Z until past 0135Z. I logged stations in Kansas, Minnesota, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ohio. At 0117Z, LA5MIA in northern Norway was logged at an S7 signal lever via auroral Es. There was very little Es from December 16 through January 5, so these openings were quite a pleasant surprise. Many stations with simple antennas were S9 or better!"

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW reported: "Today, January 9, at 3 AM local (0800 UTC) a rare winter season sporadic-E event occurred on the 11-meter band in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq). States heard were toward the south, Florida, Alabama, and as far west as Texas.

"The Kp index rose to 4, which aided to produce auroras over the southern Canadian provinces that stretched from coast-to-coast with a solar flux index (SFI) of 74. It seems that Solar Cycle 25 is very slowly intensifying out of its slumber."

Here is a news article about transition to Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/2QVHqto[1]

Watch W1PJE's MIT lecture on solar physics and HF propagation: https://bit.ly/35wM9He[2]


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at�[email protected][3].

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[8].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

Sunspot numbers for January 2 through 8, 2020 were 13, 13, 11, 11, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 8.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.9, 71.2, 72.2, 71.8, 70.5, 71.6, and 73.7, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 6, 9, 9, 5, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 7, 9, 4, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.


[1] https://bit.ly/2QVHqto
[2] https://bit.ly/35wM9He
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/17/2020

Cycle 25 sunspots persisted for the first two days (January 9-10) of this reporting week, January 9-15, with daily sunspot numbers of 14 and 11. That brought the weekly average daily sunspot number from 8.4 last week to 3.6. Average daily solar flux edged up from 71.8 to 72.5.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 6.3 to 5.6, and average middle latitude A index went from 5.3 to 3.7.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 and 71 on January 17-18, 70 on January 19 through February 7, 72 on February 8-22, and 70 on February 23 through March 1.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 17-18, 8 on January 19-20, 5 on January 21-31, 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3, 10 on February 4-6, 5 on February 7-9, 10 on February 10-11, 5 on February 12-22, 8 on February 23-24, 5 on February 25-27, 8 on February 28-29 and 5 on March 1.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 17 until February 12, 2020 by F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: January 18, 29-30, February 6-9
Quiet to unsettled on: January 19-21, 24-28, February 1, 4-5, 10-11
Quiet to active on: (January 17, 22-23, 31, February 2-3, 12)
No unsettled to active periods predicted.
No active to disturbed periods predicted.

Solar wind will intensify on: January (17, 22-24,) February 2 (-5)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
The predictability of changes is lower again

N8II wrote, concerning his report in last week's bulletin, "I forgot to mention that the January 9 contact with LA5MIA was on 20-meter SSB vs the Es contacts on 10 meters."

Also, from Jon Jones, N0JK, "Jeff, N8II, mentioned conditions on 160 meters in the Stew Perry contest 'January 28-29.' I am sure he meant December 28-29, 2019. (https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html[1]) His 10-meter Es reports correlate with the 6-meter Es occurring. I'm hoping for more winter Es."

�

Jon Jones, N0JK noted in an email titled "more corrections": "I made some boo-boos, too. K1SIX is in grid FN43. KN4NN is in grid EM70."

N0JK shared late on January 16: "Six-meter Es seemed to vanish after the strong openings the second week of January. A brief Es opening between Florida and Ohio was noted January 13 around 1800z by KD4ESV in EL87, KW4BY in EL96, and others. AA5B operated MSK144 meteor scatter January 15 from rare grid DM63. The January VHF contest this weekend."

It seems we have crossed a threshold. Though solar activity remains low, recent history shows no Cycle 24 sunspots, only Cycle 25 activity. I remain optimistic. Also, with historically low geomagnetic activity, this is a great time to enjoy 160 meters.

Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/389wQWI[2]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][3].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

Sunspot numbers for January 9 through 15, 2020 were 14, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.4, 72.8, 73.5, 71.9, 71.5, 71.9, and 71.2, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.7.

�


[1] https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html
[2] https://bit.ly/389wQWI
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/24/2020

No sunspots appeared over this reporting week (January 16-22) and on January 22 Spaceeweather.com reported currently the consecutive period of spotless days is 11. But all recent sunspots have had Cycle 25 polarity.

Average daily solar flux reported in last week's bulletin was 72.5, and this week it was 71.2.

Average daily planetary A index went from 5.6 to 4.1, and the middle latitude A index changed from 3.7 to 3.

Predicted solar flux is 71 on January 24-31, 72 on February 1-5, 71 on February 6-20, 72 on February 21 to March 3, 71 on March 4, and 70 on March 5-8.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 24-31, 10 on February 1-5, 5 on February 6-27, 10 on February 28 to March 3, and 5 on March 4-8.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 24-February 19, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: January 29-30, February 6-9, 13-16
quiet to unsettled on: January 24-28, February 1, 4-5, 10-11, 18-19
quiet to active on: (January 31, February 2-3, 12, 17)
unsettled to active on: no days
active to disturbed: no days

Solar wind will intensify on: January 24, February 2 (-3,) 6-7,
12-13, 18-19

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
The predictability of changes is lower again.

David Moore sent this article, ""Scientists measure the evolving energy of a solar flare's explosive first minutes": https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200117122105.htm[1]

The latest video from WX6SWW: https://bit.ly/2RY4HLZ[2]

On January 21, G4KSG told me that two days earlier using a dipole at 30 feet he heard both sides of a EA3/JA7 QSO at 0900 UTC on 20 meters, but he did not specify the mode.

From Jeff, N8II: "Weather is very warm here after 4 inches of wet snow and 3 cold days this week, currently about 52 degrees F at 9 PM; 66 degrees tomorrow!

"I took down a 40-meter quad loop antenna today that performed poorly compared to my 80-meter dipole fed with ladder line. It took a while to remove all of the wire wrapped with stiff heavy wire at the insulators to prevent slippage and untie tight knots. I will put up a 40-meter dipole with higher average height.

"In the past month my band-slot totals have increased considerably, about 1950 slots since January 2017 as I recall counting the same country on CW and SSB on the same band as two slots. Very few DXpeditions were active, but activity and low-band conditions were good over the Christmas season.�A UK group at ZC4UW in the British bases on Cyprus was active with over 25,000 contacts, but good for only 1 slot as ZC4A was on the air another year."

When there are no sunspots, 160 meters seems to improve, probably because of lower associated geomagnetic activity. In fact, geomagnetic activity is recently nearly non-existent. This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-meter CW contest. See details at https://www.cq160.com/rules.htm[3]


Note the low geo-activity toward the end of 2019:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q4_DGD.txt[4]

Compared to 2015:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2015_DGD.txt[5]

Note October 29-30, 2003!

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2003_DGD.txt[6]

Check this bulletin from back then:

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP044/2003[7]

Be sure to check out the SSN/flux values for that week!

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][8].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[14].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

Sunspot numbers for January 16 through 22, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.8, 70.1, 71.3, 71.8, 71.2, 70.5, and 71.9, with a mean of 71.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 3.



�


[1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200117122105.htm
[2] https://bit.ly/2RY4HLZ
[3] https://www.cq160.com/rules.htm
[4] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2019Q4_DGD.txt
[5] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2015_DGD.txt
[6] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2003_DGD.txt
[7] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP044/2003
[8] mailto:[email protected]
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/31/2020

This week we finally saw the return of sunspots, over seven of the last eight days, January 24-30. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from zero to 11.1, while average daily solar flux jumped from 71.2 to 72.9.

Geomagnetic indicators remained very quiet, signaling continued great conditions on 160 and 80 meters.

Predicted solar flux over the next month and a half is 74 on January 31 through February 2, 70 on February 3-6, 71 on February 7-13, 72 on February 14-20, 73 on February 21-22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, and 72 on March 12-15.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 31, 5 on February 1-4, 10 on February 5-6, 5 on February 7-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, and 5 on March 4-15.

On January 27, 2020 the total sunspot area was 100 millionth of the visible solar disc. The total sunspot area hasn't been larger or even near that size since May 18, 2019 when the area was 140 millionth.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 31 to February 26, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH and the Czech Propagation Interest group. OK1HH has been making these reports for 42 years, since January 1978.

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: February 8-9, 15-16, 20-23
quiet to unsettled on: February 3, 10-11, 14, 18-19, 24
quiet to active on: (January 31, February 1-2, 6-7, 13, 26)
unsettled to active on: (February 4-5, 12, 17, 25)
active to disturbed: no predicted disturbances.

Solar wind will intensify on: January 31, February 1 (-3,) 6-7, 12-15, (16,) 18-20, (21-22,) 26.

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
The predictability of changes is lower again.

Thanks to all who sent in this, a link to the highest resolution images of the Sun ever recorded: https://bit.ly/2tSr1P6[1]

David Moore sent this link: "A 'great' space weather super-storm large enough to cause significant disruption to our electronic and networked systems occurred on average once in every 25 years according to a new study." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200129104745.htm[2]

Rich Zwirko, K1HTV, wrote: "This winter season has been very good one for morning DXing here in Virginia on 160 meters. In the past 2 weeks, I have worked 12 different stations in Japan on FT8 on the Topband. Running only 75 W, 8 of the 12 contacts with Japan were made after my local sunrise, some as late as 30 minutes past sunrise. Some Japanese stations were decoded more than 40 minutes after the Sun had risen. Many days with the K index at 0 or 1 is making for a very stable path through the magnetic north polar region to the Orient.

"Activity on the higher bands have been made more interesting with a number of maritime mobile stations now working the FT8 mode. Stations traveling through many of the world's water grids and signing /MM at the end of their calls include DD6AJ, HA3FOK, R0LER, UR7FM, UT1FG, UW5EJX and YU2AX.

"Even with the Solar Flux Index in the low 70's, the 15-meter band has been open daily for FT8 contacts with stations in South America and a few in western Africa. The 17-meter band has been open daily to Europe, Africa, South Americas and there have also been a few openings to Australia and New Zealand stations.

"I'm looking forward to the summer months, hoping for a good 6-meter DX season."

Solar orbiter launches next week: https://bit.ly/38MfKhY[3]

On January 24, Jon Pollock, K0ZN, in De Soto, Kansas wrote: "Friday night, January 17, there was some extraordinary propagation on 80-meter (CW) about 0530 UTC.�Europeans were very strong here in the Midwest, well over S-9 in some cases. I had just finished working an Italian station and the next station that called him, which had about an S-6 signal was in New Zealand. I listened to the entire exchange between the Italian station and the New Zealander. I have never heard anything like that before on 80 meters. Basically, 80 meters was open with good signals over the entire dark side of the planet. My antenna is an 80-meter dipole at 35 feet. This is my solar minimum and I'm accustomed to 80 and 160 meters being better at these times. Clearly, the longer skip zone when the band goes 'long' late at night, reduces the received noise levels."

On January 26 Jon also wrote: "I got into ham radio in 1959. I like the low bands and I see it as a great equalizer. I can't put up a big antenna on the upper bands, but many of the Big Guns can't put up a big antenna on 80 and 160, so the playing field gets leveled. I have (in terms of distance) worked some really good DX on 80 and 160 this winter with simple wire antennas. One must change bands with the sunspot cycles if you want to have fun!"

N8II wrote on January 24 from West Virginia: "In the CW OPS mini contest at 1900Z Saturday, the skip zones were very long on 40 and 20, but 15 was wide open to southern California. Fifteen meters has been pretty quiet; I heard FR4QT (peaking S7) on Reunion Island chatting with a Caribbean station (unreadable) at 1500Z on Wednesday, January 22. I did get an answer from a French station who was weak on another day at around 1445Z on 15 meters.

"Low band conditions have declined in the past 10 days, but at 0330Z 160 was in good shape to LY4A in Lithuania with a S9 signal. I also logged 4Z5IW in Israel through a North American pileup (he was S4-7).

Here is latest space weather report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from several days ago: https://youtu.be/Xuz2t0-l5NE[4]

Recently I (K7RA) decided to try FT8 with the very crude and limited wire antenna I mentioned in ARLP051 at the recent end of last year. This is a wire of no particular length (perhaps 30 to 40 feet total) that winds around through laurel bushes in my back yard, about 4 feet above the ground, fastened to the branches with tie-wraps and fed with an antenna tuner.

I knew FT8 was a powerful weak signal mode, but I was astonished at the results on 80, 30 and 20 meters. Running low power, I was being heard all over the world. Checking pskreporter.info[5] I was surprised to see my signal reported from central Russia on 30 meters, as well as by various Japan, New Zealand and Brazilian stations, and of course coverage all over North America. Even though I had very few 2-way contacts (which are minimal anyway in FT8), just seeing where my pipsqueak signal was propagating was quite a revelation.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][6].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for January 23 through 29, 2020 were 0, 12, 14, 18, 12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71, 72.7, 74.7, 72.9, 74.2, and 74.3, with a mean of 72.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, and 9, with a mean of 4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 4, and 6, with a mean of 3.

�


[1] https://bit.ly/2tSr1P6
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200129104745.htm
[3] https://bit.ly/38MfKhY
[4] https://youtu.be/Xuz2t0-l5NE
[5] http://pskreporter.info
[6] mailto:[email protected]
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/07/2020

We saw a nice run of cycle 24 and cycle 25 sunspots from January 24 through February 1. Daily sunspot number reached a short-term peak of 18 on January
�26.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 11.1 reported in last week's bulletin to 4.7 over the current reporting week, January 30 through February 5.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on February 7-14, 72 on February 15-20, 73 on February 21-22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, and 74 on March 21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 7, 5 on February 8-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, and 5 on March 4-22.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 7 until March 04, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: February 12, 15-23
quiet to unsettled on: February 8, 10-11, 13-14, 24, 27, March 1-4
quiet to active on: February 7, (9, 28)
unsettled to active on: (February 25-26)
active to disturbed: none

Solar wind will intensify on: February 7, 12-15, (16,) 18-20
(21-22,) 26, (March 4)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

David Moore sent this: "Scientists have unlocked one of the mysteries of how particles from flares on the sun accumulate at early stages in the energization of hazardous radiation that is harmful to astronauts, satellites and electronic equipment. Using data from NASA's Parker Solar Probe, they observed one of the largest events that shows how plasma is released after a solar flare can accelerate and pile up energetic particles generating dangerous radiation conditions."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200203162844.htm[1]

AA2F sent this in a message he titled "Martian Sporadic E?" https://bit.ly/2H14NgL[2]

Ted Leaf, K6HI, Kona, Hawaii sent this: https://bit.ly/2OAFwhn[3]

Jeff, N8II reported on January 31: "The CQ World Wide 160 meter CW contest on January 25 and 26 featured the best conditions I have ever experienced in a Top Band test. I worked 34 outside of North American DX contacts on the first night and 90 Europeans the second night running 100 W to my half sloper antenna!

"From 0030-0330Z signals were incredibly strong from Europe. I was able to call CQ and get many European answers from all over the continent and was called by P33W in Cyprus and 4X2M in Israel. A total of 26 Germans were logged in the contest. The highlight of the first night was being called by CX6VM in Uruguay for my best DX of the weekend.

The solar flux continues to inch higher, but openings on 17 meters to Europe are generally poor and just an occasional Mediterranean opening occurs on 15 meter around 1500Z."

Here is the latest video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/aZWWc72meBA[4]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][5].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for January 30 through February 5, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.7. 10.7 cm flux was 74.1, 73.9, 72.5, 72.2, 72.1, 70.3, and 70.6, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.

�


[1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200203162844.htm
[2] https://bit.ly/2H14NgL
[3] https://bit.ly/2OAFwhn
[4] https://youtu.be/aZWWc72meBA
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/14/2020

There were no sunspots over this reporting week, February 6-12. Average daily solar flux declined over one point to 71.1. Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 8.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 14-21, 73 on February 22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, 74 on March 21-27, and 72 on March 28-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 14-17, 8 on February 18-20, 5 on February 21-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, 5 on March 4-22, 10 on March 23-24, 5 on March 25-27, and 8 on March 28-29.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 14 until March 18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: February 15-16, 20-23, March
Quiet to unsettled on: February 14, 19, 24, 28, March 1-4, 7-11
Quiet to active on: February (17-18, 27, 29), March 6
Unsettled to active on: (February 25-26, March 5)
active to disturbed: none predicted!

Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29,) March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Ken, N4SO, writes from Alabama's Gulf Coast, "On 17 meters and the digital mode FT8, the band is open all day to Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Poland, and European Russia. (This is only a sampling of countries from the first hour, Saturday morning on or about 1200 UTC.) This propagation continues all day to South America and all parts of Europe. These openings are every day with openings also to Japan and to Philippines.

"Seventeen meters is one of the best bands for Europe with continuous signals during the daytime. It is also one of the best bands for Japan starting at about 2300 UTC. This propagation is also reliable every day."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][1].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

Sunspot numbers for February 6 through 12, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.3, 70.8, 72, 70.6, 70.2, 71.1, and 71.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 15, 6, 7, 5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 11, 4, 5, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.7.

�


[1] mailto:[email protected]
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/21/2020

The most recent sunspot appearance was on February 1, nearly three weeks ago.

Average daily solar flux over the past week declined just barely from 71.1 to 70.9.

Average daily planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 7, and mid-latitude A index went from 6.7 to 5.1. Solar activity remains very low.

Predicted solar flux is projected to remain very low, at 70 on February 20-27, and 71 on February 28 through April 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on February 20-22, 5 on February 23-25, then 8 and 12 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 through March 3, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 4-6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 8, 10, 8 and 5 on March 15-19, then 10, 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on March 20-25, 5 on March 26-30, 20 on March 31, and 15, 8, 5 and 5 on April 1-4.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 21 to March 18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: February 22-23, March 1-4
Quiet to unsettled on: February 21, March 1-2, 8, 11-13, 15, 18
Quiet to active on: March 3, 6-7, 9-10
Unsettled to active on: February 25, 27, (29,) March 4-5, (16-17)
Active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29), March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Check out the new Eclectic Tech ARRL podcast, the most recent of which (February 13) has insights from K9LA regarding solar cycle progress and effects on HF propagation: https://blubrry.com/eclectictech/[1]

Ken, N4TUT, in Florida (EL98gp) reported: "Had a nice opening on 10 meters on February 18 from 1900z to 2150z to the south, working Brazil, Curacao, Martinique, Peru, Guadeloupe, and Chile. I also heard the DX stations working Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. I worked one WM6 in California off back corner of my beam."

Ken didn't give an indication of which modes he used. CW? SSB? Perhaps these were all FT8.
�
Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas wrote on February 18: "Saturday was very slow on 10 meters in the ARRL International DX CW contest with almost no spots and few contacts reported by contestants. This wasn't �surprising with a sunspot number of zero and the solar flux of 71.

"But on Sunday 10 meters popped open!

"I was surprised to find the band open to the Caribbean Sunday morning. ZF1A was coming in with a 559 signal at 1725z. I called a bunch of times, but no contact. I also heard 8P5A in and out of the noise, but no luck in terms of making contact. K0AP, who is also in Kansas, managed to snag ZF1A for his only 10-meter contact in the contest. Dragan runs a Hex Beam antenna and an ACOM amplifier. My 5 watts with the 1/4 wave whip antenna were not enough this time.

"It was nice to hear some DX signals on 10 meters during the contest. The opening appeared to me to be sporadic-E. F2 propagation on 10 meters is normally loud. These signals were not with considerable fading. The Cayman Islands are also pretty close to Kansas for making direct F2 contacts on 10, but they are within double-hop Es range. Stations within one-hop Es range of the DX stations in the southeast US did much better.

"After striking out on 10, I dropped down to 15 meters and heard many very loud Central America and Caribbean stations. I worked a very loud V47T at 1829z on 21.026 MHz. This was with the 1/4 wave 10-meter whip and no tuner, so power was probably a watt or so."

Ken Brown, N4SO reported on February 18: "There is a world-wide group of users of 28 MHz on all modes, found and reported on DXSUMMIT 28 MHZ filtered at this web address: http://www.dxsummit.fi/#/?include=28MHz[2]. I am one of dozens of daily users.

"I find the band usually opens at approximately 12 Noon locally, 1800 UTC, and closes either before sundown, or near sundown, or 0000 UTC.

On FT8, for example . . .

KC3OL �28074.0 N4SO �21:18 17 Feb EM28IX<ES>EM50TK United States

Yesterday I worked and logged FT8 stations including PU2USK in Brazil, CX4CD in Uruguay, and CA3SOC in Chile. I did not copy or work any CW stations."

Here is the latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/uTNlCAkVZJw[3]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][4].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for February 13 through 19, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 71.3, 70.6, 70.5, 70.7, 71, and 71, with a mean of 70.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 5, 3, 7, 14, and 14, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 11, and 10, with a mean of 5.1.

�


[1] https://blubrry.com/eclectictech/
[2] http://www.dxsummit.fi/#/?include=28MHz
[3] https://youtu.be/uTNlCAkVZJw
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/28/2020

Still no sunspots through all of February, except for the first day of the month. I keep watching for possible sunspot activity over the solar horizon on
�https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] . Recently I noticed a promising looking white area, and in the past few days at Spaceeweather.com they pointed out two new regions just over the horizon.

As of Thursday night, both areas still appear to be transitioning over the horizon at -90 degrees shown on the STEREO monitor at the above URL. But so far nothing in the daily 45 day forecast of solar flux shows any associated increase related to this.

Average daily solar flux changed slightly from 70.9 to 70.5 over the recent week, and geomagnetic indicators remained quiet.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on February 28 through March 3, and 71 on March 4 through April 12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 28 through March 3, then 12, 12 and 8 on March 4-6, 5 on March 7-14, then 10, 8, 10, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on March 15-21, then 5, 8, 12 and 10 on March 22-25, 5 on March 26-30, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 31 through April 2, then 5 on April 3-12.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 28 to March 25, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: March 11-14
quiet to unsettled on: March 1-3, 15, 18, 21, 23-25
quiet to active on: February (28-29), March 7-10, 19-20, 22
unsettled to active on: March 4-6, 16-17
active to disturbed: NONE!

Solar wind will intensify on: February (28 -29), March 5-7, (17-22).

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Interesting article about the Kodaikanal observatory in India with some nice butterfly diagrams and charts of daily sunspot area: https://bit.ly/39dyFD6[2]

Next weekend the Apache Point Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico hosts an open house: https://bit.ly/2I53GwO[3]

Solar activity and whale navigation: https://bit.ly/2Pw3KtK[4]

And the New York Times weighs in: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/science/whales-sunspots.html[5]

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania monitors 11 meters for evidence of sporadic-e skip. On Monday, February 24 he reports: "Sporadic-e lasted for nearly three hours from 9:58 AM (1458 UTC) to 12:49 PM (1749 UTC).

"At first, stations were coming from the west with signals from Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The furthest was a station in Chicago at 650 miles.

"Half-way into the activity, at around 11:33 am (1633 UTC), sporadic-e changed directions toward the south with signals arriving from Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The furthest signal during that round came from Jackson, Mississippi at 1013 miles."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][6].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for February 20 through 26, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71.2, 70.2, 70.1, 70.2, 70.6, and 70.1, with a mean of 70.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 14, 9, 5, 4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 7, 4, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 5.

�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://bit.ly/39dyFD6
[3] https://bit.ly/2I53GwO
[4] https://bit.ly/2Pw3KtK
[5] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/science/whales-sunspots.html
[6] mailto:[email protected]
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/06/2020

Last week we pointed out in ARLP009 that the NASA STEREO images (at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1] ) showed two bright spots, magnetically complex, about to rotate over the sun's eastern horizon and onto the visible solar disc. I was hoping these might develop into sunspots, but they both quickly faded away, so currently we have seen no sunspots in 33 days. Clearly, we are still at solar minimum.

These STEREO images are always in real time, constantly updated, so they always show a live update of images.

Over the past week average daily solar flux shifted from 70.5 to 70, average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 6.7, while average daily mid-latitude A index shifted slightly from 5 to 4.6.

This period of low solar flux and very stable geomagnetic indicators is great for 160-meter propagation, especially now during the winter season, when we enjoy very low atmospheric noise.

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported a faint coronal mass ejection detected by STEREO spacecraft on March 2. This is slow moving and expected to hit Earth on March 7 and is probably why planetary A index is predicted at 8 on March 7-8.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 6-13 and 71 on March 14 through April 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 6 on March 6, 8 on March 7-8, 5 on March 9-14, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on March 15-18, then 5, 10, 8 and 5 on March 19-22, then 8, 12, and 10 on March 23-25, 5 on March 26-30, then 20, 15 and 8 on March 31 to April 2, and 5 on April 3-19.

David Moore reports, "space weather model gives earlier warning of satellite-killing radiation storms. Two-day notice lets satellite operators take protective measures against energetic electrons: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200302153600.htm[2]

A new machine-learning computer model accurately predicts damaging radiation storms caused by the Van Allen belts two days prior to the storm, the most advanced notice to date, according to the new article."

This reports a new type of solar event, and how it might be used to predict the onset of a new solar cycle: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3[3]

N0JK comments: "The VP8PJ DXpedition just went off the air at about 0102z on March 6. The group did an outstanding job being 'available' for contacts despite adverse conditions. They stayed an additional day - March 5. This was fortuitous as VP8PJ enjoyed a great 15-meter opening to North America all afternoon.� This with an SFI of just 70 and the Kp index of 1.

"As for propagation - from Kansas - �VP8PJ was heard most frequently on 40, 30, and 20 meters. They had a consistent signal on 30 meters. I am sure even low power stations with simple antennas on 30 meters were successful working VP8PJ. I logged them here logged with about 50 W and a 'rain gutter' antenna. They had a good signal on 40 meters, but they were more difficult to work. Twenty meters was the best band to work them on SSB.

"Seventeen meters and up were more challenging. On my fixed mobile, the 17-meter signal was very weak until March 1. I heard nothing on 15 meters until March 5.�Nothing on the higher bands on any day. I noted spots by North American stations for VP8PJ on 10 meters March 1 and 3. VOACAP did not predict any 10-meter propagation to North America for VP8PJ to the Midwest, even for an 'expert DXer'."

Here is the latest video from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/mJBpFqP5b8k[4]

This weekend is the phone portion of the ARRL International DX Contest. Check http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[5] for details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][6].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for February 27 through March 4, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 70.6, 70.1, 69.3, 69.3, 70, and 69.8, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 11, 8, 5, 6, and 7, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 8, 6, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.6.

�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200302153600.htm
[3] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-1595-3
[4] https://youtu.be/mJBpFqP5b8k
[5] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[6] mailto:[email protected]
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/13/2020

I felt cheated this week when a much-anticipated sunspot only appeared just briefly, disappearing after two days.

Sunspot region AR2758 only appeared on March 8-9, with daily sunspot numbers of 13 and 12. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week rose from zero to 3.6, while average daily solar flux increased (minimally) from 70 to 70.2.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 6.7 to 4.4, and average middle latitude A index decreased from 4.6 to 3.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 13-20, 72 on March 21-22, 70 on March 23 through April 4, 72 on April 5-18, and 70 on April 19-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 13-26, then 12 and 8 on March 27-28, 5 on March 29 through April 5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24 and 5 on April 25-26.

The vernal equinox occurs next week, at 0350 UTC on March 20. 2020. This is when the Southern and Northern Hemisphere are bathed in approximately equal doses of solar radiation, and like the autumnal equinox six months later, is considered a good time of year for long distance HF communications.

I see some new activity over the solar horizon, an active, bright spot, but this time in the Northern Hemisphere: https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[1]

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 13 to April 8, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: March 13-14, 23-25, 29-30
quiet to unsettled on: March 15, 18 (- 21), 26, 28, April 2-7
quiet to active on: (March 22, 31, April 1, 8)
unsettled to active on: (March 16-17, 27)
active to disturbed: None.

Solar wind will intensify on: March (17-22,) 28, (29-31)

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower at present.

Ken, N4SO, reports monitoring NCDXF 15-meter beacons using a half-square antenna. "I heard CS3B on 21.150 MHz. The transmitter is located in Madeira (northwest coast of Africa). Reception was on March 4, 2020 at 1931 and 1934 UTC.

"The beacons in the NCDXF International Beacon Project broadcast on four different power levels: 100 W, 10 W, 1 W, and 100 mW, giving a very good indication of propagation quality.

"I heard the very strong CS3B beacon on at least 3 power levels.�The last one is uncertain.

"It's not unusual to hear NCDXF beacons on 3 power levels, if the signal is strong and the frequency is quiet. Other NCDXF beacons heard daily on 21.150 MHZ are OA4B and YV5B with variable signals, or not at all, but often heard approximately at 1900, 2000, or 2100 UTC."

Steve Gardner, KB1RUV noted strong 15-meter activity into the Caribbean last Saturday.

A local newspaper article in Duluth about recent sunspot activity: https://bit.ly/339S1Xk[2]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][3].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[9].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10].

Sunspot numbers for March 5 through 11, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 13, 12, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 70, 69.9, 70.2, 70.8, 70.8, and 70.5, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.6.

�


[1] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[2] https://bit.ly/339S1Xk
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/20/2020

On Wednesday, Spaceweather.com reported a new emerging Cycle 25 sunspot in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, but it was not yet numbered. By the next day (yesterday) it had already faded away into nothingness.

In last week's bulletin we reported sunspots on just two days, March 8 and 9.

Average daily sunspot number over this reporting week (March 12-18) declined to zero from 3.6, and daily solar flux values barely changed from 70.2 to 70.1. Geomagnetic averages were quiet but higher, with planetary A index changing from 4.4 to 5.9 and middle latitude A index from 3.6 to 4.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 on March 20-27, 70 on March 28 until April 4, 72 on April 5-18, 70 on April 19 until May 1, and 72 on May 2-3.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 20-23, 5 on March 24-27, then 8 on March 28, 5 on March 29 until April 5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24, and 5 on April 25 until May 2 and 10 on May 3.

We have been looking forward to the vernal equinox, which occurred at 0350 UTC today, March 20. Of course, depending on where you are, the arrival of spring may have been reported as yesterday, but here we are referring to the date as Friday because of UTC. So that is the same as 8:50 PDT or 11:50 EDT on Thursday.

This is a favorable time for HF propagation, with both the northern and southern hemispheres receiving an approximately equal amount of solar radiation.

Space.com has some of the finer details on the beginning of spring 2020, and an article about sunspots:

https://www.space.com/vernal-equinox-2020-earliest-spring-124-years.html[1]

https://www.space.com/sun-old-faithful-plasma-geyser-sunspot-explanation.html[2 ]

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 20 until April 15, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: April 10
quiet to unsettled on: March (20-26,) 29-30, April 2-5, 7, 11-13
quiet to active on: (March 28, 31, April 1, 6, 8-9)
unsettled to active on: (March 27, April 14-15)
active to disturbed: never

Solar wind will intensify on: March 28, (29-31, April 9, 13)

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

A couple of resources I am finding useful for real time reporting of propagation on various bands, modes and times, from 24 hours ago until present time:

https://pskreporter.info/[3]

https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4]

The latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/oNfOxlROKko[5]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at [email protected][6].

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation[12].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for March 12 through 18, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 68.8, 68.1, 70.2, 69.8, 71.6, and 72, with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 3, 5, 7, 6, and 6, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 6, 2, 3, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.1.

�


[1] https://www.space.com/vernal-equinox-2020-earliest-spring-124-years.html [2] https://www.space.com/sun-old-faithful-plasma-geyser-sunspot-explanation.html
[3] https://pskreporter.info/
[4] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[5] https://youtu.be/oNfOxlROKko
[6] mailto:[email protected]
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/27/2020

We saw another week with no sunspots, which were last observed just briefly over two weeks ago on two days, March 8-9. Spaceweather.com reports that so far in 2020, the percentage of days that have no sunspots is the same as all of 2019, when it was 77%.

Last week we saw the spring equinox, always a good seasonal indicator for better HF propagation.

Last week's bulletin ARLP012 reported the average daily solar flux at 70.1. This reporting week is just one point higher on average, at 71.1.

Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with average planetary A index at 7.7, a little higher than the previous week's average, which was 5.9. Average mid-latitude A index was also 5.9, up from 4.1 last week.

This point in the solar cycle is a great time for 160-meter propagation because of quiet geomagnetic conditions, although as the seasons change, we no longer enjoy those long winter nights, and will eventually see the return of summer conditions with increased atmospheric noise.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 71 on March 27 through April 3, 70 on April 4, 72 on April 5-18, 70 on April 19 through May 1, and 72 on May 2-10.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 27-29, 12 on March 30-31, 8 on April 1-3, 5 on April 4-5, then 10 and 8 on April 6-7, 5 on April 8-13, then 8, 12 and 8 on April 14-16, 5 on April 17-22, then 12 and 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25 through May 2, 10 and 8 on May 3-4, and 5 on May 5-10.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 27 until April 22, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, who has been compiling this report for the past 42 years.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: April 10
quiet to unsettled on: March 30, April 2-3, 7, 11-13, 20
quiet to active on: (March 27-29,) 31, April 1, (4-6, 8-9, 16-19)
unsettled to active on: (April 14-15, 21-22)
active to disturbed: None

Solar wind will intensify on: March (28-31), April (1-6,) 9, 12-13, (15,) 16-19, (20)

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indicators.
�
This is probably unrelated, but I happened across this video of OK1HH, with CW on the soundtrack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut9P0MYAzU[1]

Chip, K7JA, reports from his shack in Garden Grove, California. "Between 0238 and 0338 UTC on March 23 (the evening of March 22 Pacific Time, 1938-2038 local), I worked 3D2AG, VK4WDM, JR6EZE, and KH6U on 28 MHz FT8. Several other Australian and Japanese stations were heard at the same time. 3D2AG was loud enough to have been a solid almost-local-sounding contact on FM!

"In the same time frame but extending later in the evening (until 0410 UTC or 9:10 PM local), 15 meters was alive with Asian and Pacific stations including Hong Kong, China, Japan, Indonesia, and even JD1BHA on Ogasawara Island.

"Twenty meters was open to the Pacific and South America until almost midnight local time.

"It's fun to catch these little "tidbit" openings; they give hope for better propagation ahead! Hope all is well--stay away from the corona bugs!"

Corona Bugs? Weren't they a brand of semi-automatic keys? https://binged.it/2Jix2Zl[2]

Here is the latest from WX6SWW, who sees evidence that our Sun continues to wake up: https://youtu.be/zJv8fQFb4-g[3]

Upcoming, this weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX Contest, SSB: https://cqwpx.com/[4]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at�[email protected][5].

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[10].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for March 19 through 25, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.7, 70.8, 70.2, 70.4, 71.2, and 71.2, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 7, 8, 7, 12, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 5, 5, 7, 10, 4, and 3, with a mean of 5.9.

�


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut9P0MYAzU
[2] https://binged.it/2Jix2Zl
[3] https://youtu.be/zJv8fQFb4-g
[4] https://cqwpx.com/
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/03/2020

A new sunspot appeared on the last day in March and the first days of April, with daily sunspot numbers of 12, 13 and 12. Total sunspot area increased on each day from 10 to 20 to 30 millionths of a solar hemisphere.

Fortunately, this was a Cycle 25 spot, according to the magnetic signature.

Prior to this no sunspots were seen since earlier in March, when daily sunspot numbers were 13 and 12 on March 8-9.

Average daily solar flux this week (March 26 through April 1) declined from 71.1 to 69.4. Average daily geomagnetic indicators were identical to the previous week, with planetary A index at 7.7 and middle latitude A index at 5.9.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on April 3-22, then 68 on April 23 to May 7, and 70 on May 8-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 3, 5 on April 4-14, 10 on April 15, 8 on April 16-19, 5 on April 20-25, 12 on April 26-27, 8 on April 28-29, 5 on April 30 through May 11, 10 on May 12, 8 on May 13-16 and 5 on May 17.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 3-29, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: April 6-7, 10, 20-21
quiet to unsettled on: April 3-5, 11-13, 24, 28-29
quiet to active on: April (8-9, 25)
unsettled to active on: (April 14-19, 22-23,) 26-27
active to disturbed: none predicted

Solar wind will intensify on April 9, 12-13, (15-16,) 17-19, (20,) 26-28

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

Chip, K7JA, reports, "The late afternoon of March 31, 2020 brought a 6-meter opening to the southern half of California, as well as states to the east. Here in DM03, south of Los Angeles, I worked Dale, CE2SV, on FT8 at 2325 UTC, followed by CE3BN, XQ3MCC, and XQ3SK/4. I worked CE2SV on CW at 0002 UTC (1 April), and several other CE and LU stations were heard but not worked, along with HC2GR. Flags from PSKReporter indicate that I was heard by a total of seven CE stations, plus LU9FVS.

"Because we are so far north (geomagnetically), I suspect this may well have been an E-to-TEP path. Stations as far north as the San Francisco Bay area got in on the opening, as well.

"There was no activity on the afternoon of April 1, but you can bet the entire West Coast is watching.

"I run about 180 W from a Kenwood TS-990 transceiver to a 7-element LFA (Loop Fed Array) about 72 feet high."

Jon Jones, N0JK, commented. "Remarkable results with a solar flux of only 69."

Here is some information about the LFA Yagi: https://www.innovantennas.com/en/lfa-benefits[1]

N0JK also reported, "Sporadic-E propagation appeared on 50 MHz on� the afternoon of March 28 from Kansas to Florida. I worked NORW in grid EL87 on 6-meter FT8 at 2242z. I decoded WB4JPG (EM71) but no contact.

"KFOM in Wichita, Kansas (EM17) also made several 6-meter Es contacts with Florida stations including K3VN. He copied W5LDA (EM15) working CO3JR (EL83) at 2355z on FT8.

"Sporadic-E is rare in March. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic-E of any month for the northern hemisphere."

WB5AGZ reported from Stillwater, Oklahoma: "I have been hearing what I believe to be Sporadic E almost every afternoon since about last Sunday, March 29. It is weak but certainly present with long slow fades.

"The first evidence was a few seconds during the afternoon of March 29 with a repeater system in North Carolina. The opening was never long enough to pick out a complete call sign, but one could hear parts of the repeater's voice ID.

"The exact time is not known because this is a recording made over many hours from a scanner connected to a computer running software that makes a VOX-style sound recording without individual time stamps.

"It is now Thursday, April 2, and a playback from Wednesday picked up a long conversation between two amateurs using the KQ2H system in the New York City area.

"Signals were just strong enough to mostly copy with very long periods in which it sounded like a system in a town almost out of range coming via ground wave propagation. The signal would then fade and return.

"A recorded female voice announced the time as 7:15, which is as close to a time stamp as I have.�In the Central Daylight time zone, this would have been 18:15 or 23:15 UTC. My antenna is a discone about 50 feet above ground, feeding a Uniden BCD996XT scanner monitoring 6 and 10 meters."


Space.com offers a solar cycle observation: https://www.space.com/new-solar-cycle-starting-any-day-now.html[2]

Ken, N4SO, reports from Alabama, "This late night propagation is now setting a pattern.

Mode: FT8, Frequency 21.074 MHZ

March 31 � �12:27 AM local start time, ending 12:30 AM local
(the four digits on the left are UTC)

The stations are in Australia and New Zealand

052730 -14 �0.2 1196 ~ �VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
052800 -16 �0.2 1196 ~ �VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
052830 -16 �0.2 1195 ~ �VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
053000 -16 �0.2 1196 ~ �VR2XYL ZM3SSB RE66
The radio is often left on to monitor the frequency 21.074 MHz"

You can use PSKReporter to see what Ken is currently hearing. Go
to�https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[3]�and select 15 meters and signals received by N4SO using FT8.

KA3JAW monitors 11 meters and made this report of a sporadic-E opening: "On Tuesday, March 31, 2020, eleven days after the passing of the spring equinox (March 20), unexpected visitors waved their hands on the 11 meter band for attention for six straight hours.

"At 4:37 pm local (ET) Mid-Atlantic states noticed sporadic-e signals originating from the southeastern states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.

"One hour later, I heard signals from Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas. By the 9 o'clock hour, the propagation was slowly degenerating and by 10:30, it had disappeared.

The last time an event like this took place, was on February 24 from 9:58 am to 12:49 pm local time (ET)."

Thanks to Don Wright, AA2F, for catching an error in the earlier version of this bulletin in the ARRL Letter, in which I neglected to update the solar flux and sunspot number averages from last week's numbers. One thing that contributed to the confusion was the fact that the averages for the geomagnetic indices were exactly the same as the previous week's data.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at�[email protected][4].

For more information, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

Sunspot numbers for March 26 through April 1, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 13, with a mean of 3.6. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 69.4, 69.2, 68.8, 69.3, 69.9, and 69.2, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 5, 7, 11, 15, and 6, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4, with a mean of 5.9.

�


[1] https://www.innovantennas.com/en/lfa-benefits
[2] https://www.space.com/new-solar-cycle-starting-any-day-now.html
[3] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/10/2020

After five days of new Cycle 25 sunspot activity, sunspots vanished. Average daily sunspot number rose from 3.6 last week to 5.1 this time. The average daily sunspot number over the days they were visible, March 31 through April 4, was 12.2, but these observations straddled two reporting weeks.

Average daily solar flux rose from 69.4 to 70.2. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with average planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.6, and average mid-latitude A index slipping from 5.9 to 5.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on April 10-13, 68 on April 14-23, 70 on April 24 through May 7, 68 on May 8-20, and 70 on May 21-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 10-11, 5 on April 12-14, 10 on April 15, 8 on April 16-19, 5 on April 20-25, 10 on April 26-27, 5 on April 28 through May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May 9-11, 10 on May 12, 8 on May 13-16, 5 on May 17-22 and 10 on May 23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, wrote:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 9-May 5, 2020

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: April 10, 20-21, May 2-3
quiet to unsettled on: April 11-13, 17-18, 22-24, 28-29
quiet to active on: (April 9, 14, 16, 25, May 1)
unsettled to active on: (April 15, 19, 26-27, 30, May 4-5)
active to disturbed:- nothing predicted
Solar wind will intensify on: April 9, 12-13, (15-16,) 17-19, (20,) 26-28, May 4-6
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications."





In her latest video, Dr Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is excited about signs of Cycle 25: https://youtu.be/UKsPSnSZers[1]

Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent this out to the Potomac Valley Radio Club yesterday, and shared it with us for this bulletin: "Some of us have noticed a slight uptick in solar activity since Christmas Day when two Cycle 25 spots -- AR 2753 and AR 2754 -- appeared.
Only one of the five subsequent sunspots -- AR 2757 -- �has been from old Cycle 24.� All of the sunspots over the last 12 months have been relatively weak and have had little effect on propagation.
"Although the beginning of Cycle 25 won't be officially declared until late this year, its highly likely that it began on Christmas Day 2019. The next important event to look for is a strong Cycle 25 sunspot, hopefully that will occur this year."
Two relevant links: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1[2]

https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/welcome-cycle-25-a-new-solar-magnetic-cycle-has-b egun[3]

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote yesterday: "With the early start to the summer sporadic-E season, some Es are linking from North �America to South America.

"On April 9, LU9FF and LU9FVS spotted K4CVL on 50.313 MHz FT8 at 2230z. K4TR and NN4X in South Florida spotted stations in Chile. Signals were strong enough for SSB with AC4TO EM70 working CA3SOC and LU8YD on 50.110 MHz SSB at 2224z.

"KN4NN, AA5AU and N0FW (EM79) Ohio were also making FT8 contacts with South America on 6 meters."
�
KA3JAW monitors 11 meters, (that's right, Citizens Band) for interesting propagation events from Easton, PA (FN20jq): "Sporadic-E was up on eleven meters on Tuesday, April 7 from 6:45 until 11:00 pm local (ET).

"During this event, the Es funnel path coned me stations only from the coastal Gulf of Mexico states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama.

"I find it somewhat strange that Es remains active up till late nightly hours during the opening of Spring season.

"I thought Tuesday, March 31 was a good DX day monitoring the 11-meter band with reception of Tyler, Texas at 1,254 miles.

"But today, Saturday, April 4 was way more exciting with reception of multiple Puerto Rican stations rolling-in from 6:42 pm local (ET) until 8:00 pm that were 374+ miles further in range.

"One operator there was making greater than 1,600 miles contacts from West Virginia up into Rhode Island.

"At around local sunset at 7:29 pm the baseline background noise level environment �jumped 30 dB when one particular operator running high power would key the microphone.

"Puerto Rican operators would occasionally peak 20 dB over local operators.

"The distance from my home to San Juan, Puerto Rico runs 1,628 miles. This would be at the far end range of a single-hop sporadic-e path. Perhaps the ion cloud was tilted a few degrees from horizon."

�

Your author has been using the FT8 mode with WSJT-X software to observe marginal propagation modes, in which communication occurs due to refraction via whispery ionized clouds. Using low power and a deliberately marginal antenna (short piece of wire, thrown out the basement window, never more than 4 feet above ground) I can immediately see signal reports from many stations
via�https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4]. Some of the results on 160 through 10 meters seem quite remarkable, considering the antenna and power level.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers email the author at�[email protected][5].

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[10].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[11].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for April 2 through 8, 2020 were 12, 13, 11, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 69.9, 70.1, 71.2, 69.9, 69.9, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 5, 5, 3, 4, and 13, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 4, 4, 2, 3, and 10, with a mean of 5.3.

�


[1] https://youtu.be/UKsPSnSZers
[2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1
[3] https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/welcome-cycle-25-a-new-solar-magnetic-cycle-has-begun
[4] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/24/2020

The last day with a visible sunspot was April 4.

Over the past reporting week, April 16-22, average daily solar flux was 69, down a half point from the previous week, when the average was 69.5.

Average daily planetary A index was 7.3 while mid-latitude A index was 7. This was up from 6.1 and 5, mainly due to the first geomagnetic storm of 2020, which pushed planetary A index to 18 on April 19. That event bumped up the average.

Solar flux numbers have been soft of late, with averages over recent weeks of 71.1, 69.4, 70.2, 69.5 and now 69. Lower solar flux probably means less radiation that might excite the ionosphere.

Predicted solar flux is 71 on April 24-30 and 69 on May 1 through June 7. The April 23 forecast shows predicted solar flux at 96 on May 12, but we've seen this error once in the past. The digits were transposed. In fact, I won't even notify NOAA. It will be fun to see how long it takes for anyone to notice.

The predicted planetary A index is forecast at 5 on April 24-29, 8 on April 30, 5 on May 1-4, 12 on May 5, 5 on May 6-16, then 12, 10, 8 and 10 on May 17-20, 5 on May 21-23, then 10, 5, 5 and 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28-31, 12 on June 1, and 5 on June 2-7.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 24-May 19, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on: May 1-3, 6, 13-15, 19
Quiet to unsettled on: April 24, 28, 30. May 18
Quiet to active on: (April 25,"27, May 5, 7-9, 12, 17)
Unsettled to active on: (April 26, 29, May 4, 10-11, 16)
Active to disturbed: nothing expected

Solar wind will intensify on April 17-19, (20,) 26-28, May 4-6, 8-10

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

Frank, W3LPL alerted us to an updated Cycle 25 prediction: "Early this month SWPC published their official updated prediction of Solar Cycle 25 in a new user-interactive graph format. Their updated prediction is based on the results of NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. See www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[1].

"SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.� There is broad consensus that Solar Minimum is ongoing this year -- or may have already occurred -- �and that Cycle 25 will have no major change in the level of solar activity compared to Cycle 24.

"For many years SWPC's solar cycle predictions have used the Royal Observatory of Belgium's International Sunspot Number. SWPC's official solar cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The International Sunspot Number is typically about one third lower than the SWPC sunspot number.

"While this is SWPC's official Cycle 25 prediction, it's important to note there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members of the space weather forecasting community. Most forecasts and forecasters agree that the Cycle 25 peak is likely to be within plus or minus 20 percent of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027. Also see link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2[2]."


N0JK reported from Kansas: "I had sporadic-E on 50 MHz April 21. From 1900-2100z stations in Florida were coming in well. I made about a dozen contacts on FT8. Also decoded CO8LY FL20 calling CQ. Then I saw on the PSKReporter site that two Kansas stations copied HC5VF in Ecuador on 6 Meter FT8 around 2310z. This was likely via multi-hop sporadic-E."

Dr Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new video report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmfS7P1pJMQ[3]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at�[email protected][4].

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[9].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for April 16 through 22, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 67.9, 69.8, 68.6, 68.2, 69.1, and 70.7, with a mean of 69. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 3, 18, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 2, 16, 8, and 10, with a mean of 7.

�

�


[1] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[2] http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmfS7P1pJMQ
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/01/2020

There were several sunspot appearances this week. Sunspot numbers on April 25-29 were 11, 14, 12, 0 and 24, giving a weekly average of 8.7. Average daily solar flux changed from 69 to 69.2.

Geomagnetic activity remains quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.3 to 5.6.

On Thursday, new sunspot activity continued, with the daily sunspot number for April 30 at 35, and the total sunspot area four times what it was on April 25-27. This new activity is both encouraging and exciting.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on May 1-5, 69 on May 6-16, 70 on May 17-31, 69 on June 1-12, and 70 on June 13-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 1-2, then 8, 8, 10 and 8 on May 3-6, 5 on May 7-17, then 10 and 8 on May 18-19, 5 on May 20-23, 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28-31, 12 on June 1, 5 on June 2-13, and 10 on June 14.


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 1-26, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: May 2-3, 13-14, 26
Quiet to unsettled on: May 1, 6-8, 15-16, 25
Quiet to active on: (May 4, 9-10, 17, 20, 22, 24)
Unsettled to active on: May 5, (11-12, 18-19, 21, 23)
Active to disturbed: None predicted

Solar wind will intensify on: May (4,) 5-6, (11-12,) (18-21, 23,) 24

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

Michael Guerin, W6MVT, of Upland, California wrote: "The evening of 27 April 2020 was an odd one for those of us in Southern California. After the end of the Florida QSO Party 20 meters became quiet here. Yet in the evening around 0300 UTC the only three signals heard were there ZL1s - ANH, BD and WN. Each courteously received each of us and we enjoyed clear (uncontested) time with our neighbors to the southwest. It was like having an exclusive pipeline. Nice change."

KB1DK from Trumbull, Connecticut wrote: "On Saturday morning April 25th between 1350-1430z, I listened to YB0AZ and YB0IBM working stations in the Midwest on 14.190 and 14.210, respectively. Both stations were armchair copy, S8 to S9 on an inverted vee OCFD antenna. Those lucky enough to work YB0IBM also got to contact his friends YB1DNF and HS0ZOA. YB0AZ said that it has been nearly a year since he worked stateside stations. Nothing was heard this morning (4/26). I did not contact either station.

"On 17 meters, ZL1WN is a regular on 18.150 to 18.160 between 2100 and 2130z. I have been hearing Ross on most afternoons with a strong S8 to S9 signal though the fading can get pretty bad."


I think it is interesting that YB0AZ says it has been nearly a year since he last worked USA stations. He should be hearing from North America more often as the sunspot cycle picks up.

Sean, K8KHZ, wrote: "Forty meters was great on April 18 at 0100z. I was able to work EA8BWW Canary Islands. I used a low-height inverted G5RV antenna with just 100 watts on SSB. I was surprised the band was open."


Be sure to check the current issue of ARRL Letter for comments by K9LA on differences between historic sunspot numbers. The link
is�http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-04-30[1]�.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at�[email protected][2].

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[7].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[8].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[9].

Sunspot numbers for April 23 through 29, 2020 were 0, 0, 11, 14, 12, 0, and 24, with a mean of 8.7. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 69.7, 68.9, 69.2, 69, 69, and 69.9, with a mean of 69.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 5, 6, 7, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, and 4, with a mean of 5.1.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-04-30
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/05/2020

Two new sunspots emerged this week, with a one-day gap on Tuesday with no sunspot. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 0 last week to 3.3 in this week, May 28 through June 3.

It seems odd, but average daily solar flux was 69.6, unchanged from the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 6, but average middle latitude A index was 5.7, same as last week.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on June 5-12, 70 on June 13-20, 71 on June 21 to July 4, 70 on July 5-17, and 71 on July 18-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 5 through July 19. That's right, quiet with the A index at 5 on every single day over the next six and a half weeks.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 5-30, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: June 5, 10, 12-13, 19, 22-25, 27, 30
quiet to unsettled on: June 6-7, (8-9,) 11, 14-18, 20-21, 28-29
quiet to active on: (June 26)
unsettled to active on: nothing predicted
active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on June (6-7, 16-17, 26-29)

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

Jim Wilson, K5ND, noted on June 1: "I'm sure you've heard already about the extraordinary six meter activity this past weekend. I've heard about a big opening early Sunday morning from the Pacific Northwest into Alaska and Japan. Later that morning I experienced a big opening into Europe from here in North Texas. With 140 watts and 3-element Yagi at 20 feet I managed to work 7 new DXCC entities. Was that ever exciting. Here's my full write up: https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/[1]"

Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported on May 30: "We had some fascinating conditions Friday evening, before and at the start of the WPX CW.

"Before the contest, folks were reporting hearing/working Europe on 10 meters here on the east coast, which is late, even during the top of the sunspot cycle.

"In central Florida, we experienced tremendous lightning noise at the start of the contest, but awhile later, I was stunned to hear and work Europe, coming from the west!�Hawaii was also strong.

"I've been licensed and continually active since 1977, and do not recall that I've ever observed prop to Europe on 15 meters at that time of night, and on that �path.

"It would be interesting to see what others have reported, and to better understand the cause of this opening."

Mike Galler, WD5JTZ, has returned after being off the air for the past 35 years, and notices increased static, particularly on 80 meters. I replied that one problem which has increased over the past few decades is RFI from a proliferating number of consumer electronics devices that radiate lots of garbage and are non-compliant with FCC Part 15 rules covering incidental radiation. I am experiencing this with a nearby rooftop solar electric array which is tied into the local electric power grid.

Noise will increase seasonally as we transition into summer, but one positive factor is the extremely low amount of geomagnetic activity. This is related to very low solar activity, and has contributed to favorable conditions on 160 meters.

On May 29, Richard Ferry, K2KA, of Westford, Massachusetts wrote: "Yesterday we had another epic opening to Europe on 6-meter FT8. There were many signals. I worked TK5MH for a new one and copied ZB2GI but did not work.

"It started before 2000z and went for an hour or more. Signals were strong and steady; +00 to -10 dB on average."


For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[6].

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at�http://arrl.org/propagation[7].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

Sunspot numbers for May 28 through June 3, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 0, and 12, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 69.6, 70, 70.8, 69.2, 70.4, and 70, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 14, 4, 6, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 13, 4,

�


[1] https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/17/2020

It turns out last week's bulletin ARLP028 did not get posted to the ARRL web site and did not go out via the usual channels. If you need a copy, check the bulletin archive link given at the end of this bulletin (perhaps tomorrow), or email a request to the author at�[email protected][1].

Over the past week, July 9-15, just one day had sunspot activity, and that was July 10 when the daily sunspot number was 12. The sunspot was number 2766, returning for a second appearance from old Cycle 24.

On July 16 Spaceweather.com reported "a tiny proto-sunspot" exhibiting polarity indicating Cycle 25. But later it seemed to be gone, and every time I thought I'd spotted something, it turned out to be dirt on my computer screen.

From the previous week to this week, average daily sunspot number declined from 3.3 to 1.7, but average daily solar flux stayed the same, at 68.5.

Predicted solar flux remains low, further evidence of this long, deep solar minimum. All flux values for the next 45 days are predicted to stay below 70. 69 is the predicted 10.7 cm solar flux on July 17-22, 68 on July 23-24, 69 on July 25 through August 1, 68 again on August 2-20, 69 on August 21-28 and 68 on August 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 17-30, then 8 and 10 on July 31 through August 1, 5 on August 2-8, 8 on August 9-10, 5 on August 11-26, 8 on August 27-28, and 5 on August 29-30.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 17 until Aug 12, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be

quiet on: July 17-21, 25-26, 28-29, August 4-7

quiet to unsettled on: July 24, 27, 30, August 1-3, 10-12

quiet to active on: (July 22-23, 31, August 8-9)

unsettled to active on: nothing predicted

active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on: July (17-18, 21-22)

23-25, (26-27,) August 1-3 (- 4)

Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- The predictability of changes remains in the long run lower as there are very few indications.

�

George Hall, N2CG, reported, "I'm located in Northern New Jersey (FN20wv) and on July 11 starting around 8 AM EDT (1200Z) and for the next eleven hours the 6-meter band on FT8 mode was open to five continents.

"All parts of Europe were coming in for over 10 hours and I managed to work 11 different DXCC entities, including JW7QIA in Svalbard for an all-time new one.

"In Africa, the Canary Islands were coming in and there were a few Caribbean stations as well as many areas of the US and parts of northern South America workable with strong signals.

"At 2200Z I had to go off the air due to an approaching thunderstorm. When I returned to the air at 2240Z the HamSpots DX cluster was showing I had spotted over a dozen Japanese stations on 6-meter FT8! For the next 25 minutes I managed to work six Japanese stations, with received signals ranging from -06 to -18 dBm. So, working Japan not only gave me an all-time new one, it also gave me Asia; the last continent I needed for my 6-meter Worked All Continents award, which I'll be able to apply for when I receive a paper QSL card from one of the Japanese stations. Let's hope the remaining weeks of this summer's 6-meter Es season will bring more DX surprises."

�

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania wrote: "On Sunday July 12, at 1 PM local time (1700 UTC), heard and worked Elye, KI5DLL, from Malvern, Arkansas (95 miles away from the Texas state line in Texarkana) at a distance of 1,057 miles. Initially his signal report was 1x1, but later rose to 3x3.

"On Thursday, July 14, at 11 AM local time (1500 UTC), I heard Mark, KI4SWB, from Melbourne Beach, Florida at 924 miles. His signal report was 4x7, peaking +30 dB with deep fading. Both contacts were on the 10-meter FM simplex frequency of 29.600 MHz.

"Considering operators on the lower segment 10 meter band (28 MHz) are having a rough time making DX contacts using SSB at a 3-kHz bandwidth, which is four times narrower compared to FM, it is somewhat amazing that I am starting to hear these type of emissions in the depths of a Solar Minimum. I urge everyone to continue monitoring 29.600 FM simplex. Even if the frequency sounds dead, give a call anyway. You might be pleasantly surprised."

Mike sent an update on July 16: "Today, at 11:53 AM local (1553 UTC), I heard Lloyd, KC5FM, from Newkirk, Oklahoma, north of Oklahoma City. He was involved in a conversation, so I waited until be finished and then called him. To my surprise he returned my call with a 3x3 signal report. The distance was 1,203 miles. This is my FM record to date!"

�

The latest video from WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/KK-kGMZe71Q[2]

�

For more information concerning radio propagation,
see�http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service at�http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin,
see�http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is
at�http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at�http://k9la.us/[7].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at�http://arrl.org/bulletins[8].

Sunspot numbers for July 9 through 15, 2020 were 0, 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.8, 68.7, 67.6, 68.2, 68.9, and 68.4, with a mean of 68.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 11, and 5, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 3, 7, 9, and 6, with a mean of 4.9.

�

�


[1] mailto:[email protected]
[2] https://youtu.be/KK-kGMZe71Q
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/24/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports:�Another Cycle 25 sunspot (AR2767) appeared this week, with a minimum non-zero sunspot number of 11 on July 21 - 23. This puts the average daily sunspot number for the July 16 - 22 reporting week at 3.1, up from 1.7 over the previous 7 days.

Geomagnetic indicators remain very quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 5 to 3.9.

This sunspot cycle minimum remains surprisingly inactive. As time goes on, I keep expecting it to perk up, but all indicators remain quiet.

One hopeful outlook[1] for Cycle 25 comes from a group of scientists who predict that it could be one of the biggest solar cycles of all time. Could we finally see a repeat of Cycle 19?

Predicted solar flux - which roughly correlates to sunspot activity - also looks quite dull. Until Thursday, July 23, the 45-day outlook predicted solar flux would never rise hit 70.

Predicted flux values are 70 on July 24 - 31; 69 on August 1; 68 on August 2 - 20; 69 on August 21 - 28, and 68 on August 29 - September 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, and 5 on July 24 - 27; 8 on July 28 - 29; 5, 8, and 10 on July 30 - August 1; 5 on August 2 - 18; 8 on August 19 - 20; and 5 on August 21 - September 5.

Spaceweather.com[2] reports a possible coronal mass ejection (CME) impact this week. The faint CME left the sun on July 19 and may cause a minor disturbance on July 24 - 25. This is reflected in the planetary A index forecast.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for July 24 - Aug 19 from OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o Quiet on July 24 - 26; 28 - 29; August 4 - 7, and August 13 - 18.
o Quiet to unsettled on July 27; 30; August 1 - 3, and August 10 - 12.
o Quiet to active on July 31; August 8 - 9, and August 19.
o No unsettled-to-active or active-to-disturbed conditions are expected.
o Solar wind will intensify on July (23 - 27), August 1 - 3 (- 4, 11 - 15).

Note: Parentheses mean a lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains lower in the long run, as there are very few indications, as the Solar Cycle minimum is here.

Wade Blake, N7LGK, calls attention to this Solar Cycle Progression[3] graph from NOAA.

Last week exceptional HF conditions during the IARU HF World Championship (July 11 - 12) were reported, with no sunspots. K7HV, K7SS, and others reported that conditions on Saturday night were "like the good old days," with worldwide propagation.�

Sunspot numbers for July 16 - 22 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 68.7, 69, 67.8, 68.9, 69.3, 69.8, and 70, with a mean of 69.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins.

Share[10] your reports and observations.�


[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/31/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Finally, sunspots have returned! Two sunspots now are visible, both from new Solar Cycle 25. The daily sunspot number was 11 for July 21-27, rising to 22 for July 28-30.

Recently, we have noticed an improvement in propagation due to seasonal sporadic-E activity.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 3.1 to 14.1 this week, and average daily solar flux edged up from 69.1 to 71.1.

Total sunspot area covered 80 millionths of the solar disc on July 21, 120 millionths on July 22-26, and the coverage on the following 4 days was 70, 50, 85 and 110.

Geomagnetic indicators were a bit more active, with average daily planetary A index rising from 3.9 to 6.7, while average daily mid-latitude indicators rose from 4.3 to 8.7.

Predicted solar flux is 72 on July 31 - August 2, 70 on August 3 - 7, 68 on August 8 - 22, 69 on August 23 - 28, and 68 on August 29 - September 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 31, then 8 and 10 on August 1 - 2, 5 on August 3 - 23, 8 on August 24 - 25, and 5 on August 26 - September 13.



Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 31 to August 26 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o Quiet on August 4 - 7, 15 - 19, 22 - 26


o Quiet to unsettled on July 31, August 2 - 3, (8,) 9, 11, (12 - 14,) 20


o Quiet to active on (August 1, 10, 21)


o Unsettled to active not expected


o Active to disturbed not expected


o Solar wind will intensify on: August 1 - 3 (-4, 11 - 15,) 20 - 21, (22 - 25)



Notes:

+Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

+Predictability of changes remains lower this time, thanks to new active regions on the Sun.



K7DWI offers interesting details[1] on his blog about using cheap SDR dongles for studying VHF openings.

Thanks to Howard Lester, N7SO for this article[2] on solar flares:

And thanks to regular contributor David Moore for this article[3] from Science Daily.

Here's the latest[4] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Her QRZ.com profile[5] was recently updated and expanded.

Sunspot numbers for July 23 - 29, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 22, and 22, with a mean of 14.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.3, 69.5, 70.4, 71.4, 71.4, 71.8, and 72.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 11, 15, 3, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 13, 27, 3, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com/2017/11/using-software-defined-radio-sdr-on-fm.html
[2] https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/news/2020-15
[3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200727145826.htm
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vifDrXHwwsE
[5] https://www.qrz.com/db/wx6sww
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/14/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New Sunspot Cycle 25 continues to make a strong showing. Sunspots have appeared on every day for more than 3 weeks. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week slipped a bit from 19.6 to 14.3 this week, but average daily solar flux increased from 72.8 to 73.8. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet. Both the average daily planetary and mid-latitude A index were 3.7.

Predicted solar flux for the next 6 weeks is 72 on August 14 - 15; 70 on August 16 - 21; 72 on August 22 - 27; 73 on August 28 - 29; 75 on August 30 through September 9; 73 on September 10 - 11; 72 on September 12 - 23; 73 on September 24 - 25, and 75 on September 26 - 27. This is a welcome change from recent forecasts, which saw predicted solar flux consistently below 70.

Predicted planetary A index forecasts continued quiet geomagnetic conditions; at 5 on August 14 - 23; 8 on August 24 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 28; then 8; 16 and 8 on August 29 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 19; 8 on September 20 - 21; 5 on September 22 - 24, then 8, 16, and 8 on September 25 - 27.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 14 - September 9 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on August 15 - 16, September 5 - 7�


o quiet to unsettled on August 14, 17 - 19, 22, (23,) 24 - 25, (26 - 29,) September 2 - 4, 8 - 9�


o quiet to active on (August 20 - 21, 30 - 31, September 1)�


o unsettled to active not expected�


o active to disturbed not expected�


o Solar wind will intensify on August (22 - 23,) 24 - 25, September 1 - 2 (4 - 6)�



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28 in Kansas), offered this comment about the mention of 6-meter sporadic E in last week's bulletin. "Many of the reports I have received for July (including long-time 6-meter operator N0LL) reported great conditions on 50 MHz Es. On July 13, N0LL had his FT8 screen full of stations from Japan calling him on 50.313 MHz. Today, August 9, I had sporadic E on 6 meters to Florida, Texas, Mexico, and Arizona from Kansas."

Jon is editor of the monthly "World above 50 MHz" column in QST.

Here's a recent video[1] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, recently posted a survey[2] of various Solar Cycle 25 predictions. He also did a presentation[3] at on the same subject at the recent QSO Today Virtual Ham Expo. The material from that event will be up until September 9. Carl's Basic Concepts[4] resource is always good for a review.

Personally, I like the prediction that promises a repeat of the epic Cycle 19 of the late 1950s. I was a small child then, but my father had a low-band FM 2-way radio mounted in his company car, probably operating somewhere between 30 and 40 MHz judging from my hazy memory of the length of the bumper-mounted whip antenna.�

We were in Reedley, California, in the San Joaquin Valley. He sold agricultural chemicals to farmers and would use the radio to contact the office in Fresno. But at the peak of Cycle 19, local communications were often interrupted by skip from Texas and various midwestern states.

From correspondence I've received from readers, I know there were many new teen-aged hams at that time, and a lot of then likely assumed that the fantastic propagation of the day was normal. Many were disappointed by Cycle 20, which was when I got my Novice ticket.

So, I'd like to think we are due for another big cycle, but I try to avoid the gambler's fallacy. That is the name of the logical fallacy in which, when observing a random series of events such as spinning a roulette wheel, we keep seeing the ball land on red, and conclude we are due for black to come up. But with independent random events, one result cannot predict the next.

Sunspot numbers for August 6 - 12, 2020 were 14, 14, 11, 13, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 14.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.1, 74, 74.7, 73.9, 74.2, 73.5, and 73.1, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.7.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.


[1] https://youtu.be/6giEZ8rcBhk
[2] http://k9la.us/Aug20_Cycle_25_Predictions.pdf
[3] https://www.qsotodayhamexpo.com/
[4] http://k9la.us/html/basic_concepts.html
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/21/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared on 4 days over the past week, but then returned. The average daily sunspot number declined from 14.3 to 5.4, while average daily solar flux went from 73.8 to 71. Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet. The average daily planetary A index increased from 3.7 to 4.4.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 21 - 22; 69 on August 23 - 28; 72 on August 29; 73 on August 30 - September 5; 72 on September 6 - 9; 71 on September 10 - 11; 70 on September 12 - 19; 71 on September 20 - 23; 72 on September 24 - 25; 73 on September 26 - October 2, and 72 on October 3-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 21 - 22; 6 on August 23 - 25; 5 on August 26 - 28, 8, 16, and 8 on August 29 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 14, 10 on September 15 - 16, 5 on September 17 - 24, then 8, 16, and 8 on September 25 - 27, and 5 on September 28 - October 4.

According to the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 21 - September 16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, the geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 5-7


o quiet to unsettled on August 22, (23,) 24-25, (26-28,) September 2-4, 8-9


o quiet to active on (August 21, 29-31, September 1, 16)


o unsettled to active - not expected


o active to disturbed - not expected


o Solar wind will intensify on: August (21-23,) 24-25, 29, September 1-2, (4-6,) 8, 15-16



Notes: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Thanks to Max White for this link to a Phys.org article[1] about a dent in Earth's magnetic field and the South Atlantic Anomaly.

Here's the latest report[2] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. The CME she speaks of turned out not to be geo-effective, so we missed a disturbance.

Reader David Moore alerted us to a ScienceDaily article[3] on the NASA THEMIS Mission. "A special type of aurora, draped east-west across the night sky like a glowing pearl necklace, is helping scientists better understand the science of auroras and their powerful drivers out in space."

George Hall, N2CG, writes:

"Reading The K7RA Solar Update of August 14 regarding your personal experience of Solar Cycle 19 when you were a young boy listening to the low-band VHF FM 2-way radio in your dad's company car in California and suddenly hearing stations in Texas and other midwestern states brought back fond memories of a similar nature I experienced in Solar Cycle 20.

"I was a Radioman on active duty in the US Coast Guard stationed at NIK/NJN on the US Naval Air Station, Argentia, Newfoundland. The Crash Crew - a fire department specifically devoted to incidents on the airport with specially equipped fire trucks that could literally drive right up on top of a fire on the ground and expel fire extinguishing foam from the underside of the crash crew trucks to put out the fire - at Argentia was a 24/7/365 operation that monitored the airport control tower's VHF Low Band (30 - 49 MHz).

"Over the radio one bright sunny early afternoon in June 1968 came the call 'ROLL THE GEAR ROLL THE GEAR,' which is the highest response precedence for the Crash Crew to man the crash crew trucks and head for the airport crash site. The Argentia Newfoundland Crash Crew immediately headed for the airport, but saw no evidence of a crash - no smoke or fire. The senior on-scene crash crew member called the tower to ask if this was a drill. The tower replied they also heard the 'ROLL THE GEAR' call, but it was not [from] them, and for the crash crew to return to station.

"Later that day it was determined that the 'ROLL THE GEAR' call actually came from the US Naval Air Station in Rota, Spain, over 2,500 miles away. Both Argentia and Rota used the same VHF Low Band frequency.

"Thanks for bringing back the fond memories of over 52 years ago." [Edited for length. - Ed]

Sunspot numbers for August 13 - 19 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 15, with a mean of 5.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.3, 70.8, 70.6, 70.9, 70.8, 71.3, and 70.5, with a mean of 71. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 7, and 6, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 7, and 9, with a mean of 5.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] https://phys.org/news/2020-08-nasa-track-slowly-dent-earth.html
[2] https://youtu.be/GW4HOvejxFA
[3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200814131005.htm
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/28/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our closest star seems to have quieted again. We have now experienced 7 consecutive days with no sunspots.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 5.4 to 1.9 this week, and average daily solar flux declined from 71 to 70.4. Geomagnetic indicators increased marginally, with average daily planetary A index going from 4.4 to 5.1, and average middle latitude A index from 5 to 6.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 28 - September 3; 71 on September 4; 72 on September 5 - 9; 71 on September 10 - 16; 70 on September 17 - 27; 71 on September 28 - 30; 72 on October 1 - 6, and 71 on October 7 - 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, 12, and 8 on August 28 - 31; 5 on September 1 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 10, 15, and 10 on September 20 - 22; 5, 10, 12, and 18 on September 23 - 26; 15 on September 27 - 28; 12 on September 29, and 5 on September 30 - October 11.

OK1HH is on his annual hiatus, so no geomagnetic prediction from him this week. Instead, we present a much more limited forecast from Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Observatory in the Czech Republic. Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 28 - September 3:


o Quiet: August 27, Sep 1 - 3


o Unsettled: August 27 - 31, Sep 1 - 2


o Active: possible August 30 - 31


o Minor storm: 0


o Major storm: 0


o Severe storm: 0



Geomagnetic activity summary: Friday, August 28, we expect the most quiet conditions yet. Friday evening, more unsettled conditions are possible. The most unsettled conditions are expected over the weekend, Saturday, August 29, and Sunday, August 30. The unsettled stage can also peak by any isolated active event.

After Monday, August 31, we expect waning of the unsettled conditions to quiet-to-unsettled level. The first 3 days of September, we expect quiet conditions to return. - Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory

Since sunspots are fading (I assure you this is temporary) we have received another of the occasional reminiscences of Solar Cycle 19, this one from Bill, W5EC.

"I would love for�everyone to experience another cycle 19 in the next 10 years.

"I received my Novice license in 1954 at the age of 16. My station was an S-38 and a homemade 6V6 xmtr on 80 meters, crystal controlled. Later, I was given a 40 meter crystal and I enjoyed more-distant QSOs. One night I was called by a very strange call, and I learned that I was talking to CM7JA in Camaguey, Cuba. My first DX, and I was hooked. I built a mighty Heathkit AT-1 and moved to 15 meters in my quest for DX. Hawaii was my first DX on 15.

"I received my General in 1955, and built a Heathkit VFO. Now I was set for DX. In late 1954, the SSN was bouncing around 5, good for 80 and 40. In late 1955 the SSN was bouncing around 70, and 20, 15, and 10 were alive with signals from everywhere. I upgraded to an NC-98 receiver and a Globe Scout transmitter, and in late 1956 the SSN was about 160. I thought DX could not be better than this.

"But it did! I built a homemade 10-meter beam made from bamboo poles wrapped in aluminum foil and could contact anyone I could hear. By the end of 1957, the SSN was 200 with excursions to 250. All the high bands were open all night long. It was fantastic! Most of my operation was on CW with an occasional QSO on AM, if I heard a new one.

"By 1958, school and girls competed with radio for my attention, but I always found some time to operate. SSN was still up around 160. Soon it was graduation, job, marriage, and kids but I always found time to flip the new-and-improved rig on. I was also working on getting those elusive QSL cards to improve my DXCC standing.

"Now at 82, I am still working DX but mostly on FT8, and I am looking forward to an exciting Solar Cycle 25. I hope y'all can experience what I did.

" --�Bill, W5EC. DXCC #1 Honor Roll/Mixed: 362/340/CW: 346/339

Thanks, Bill, for the report from the mid-20th century. Nice to hear of a Yagi built from bamboo poles wrapped in aluminum foil.

I hope we see more sunspots soon, and one thing we have to look forward to currently is improved propagation due to seasonal effects. We are just a few weeks away from the autumnal equinox.

Here's a new video[1] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for August 20 - 26 were 13, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 19. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.9, 70.9, 70, 70.6, 70.3, 70.6, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 8, 7, 3, 4, and 7, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 13, 7, 3, 3, and 7, with a mean of 6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.


[1] https://youtu.be/CnNpWD5UzVs
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/04/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: As of Thursday night, no sunspots have appeared for the past 13 days. I know we are all hoping for more sunspots, and I'm sure they'll be returning soon; the trends for this newly awakening solar cycle favor it. One event to look forward to this month is the autumnal equinox on Tuesday, September 22, which should favor worldwide HF propagation.

Average daily solar flux declined this reporting week (August 27 - September 2) from 70.4 to 69.6.

Geomagnetic indicators showed quite a bit more activity than they have in some time. Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 13.1. The most active day was August 31, when the planetary A index reached 26. The cause was a vigorous solar wind spewing from holes in the solar corona.

Predicted solar flux is 70, forecast for every one of the next 45 days. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 4 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 5 on September 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 14 on September 23 - 25; 10 on September 26 - 27; 12 and 10 on September 28 - 29, and 5 on September 30 - October 18.

This article[1] says the solar minimum most likely occurred last December.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, offers his geomagnetic activity forecast for September 4 - 29.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 5 - 8, 10 - 13, 16 - 17, 20 - 21


o quiet to unsettled on September 4, 9, 14, 29


o quiet to active on September 15, 18 - 19, 22 - 24, 26


o unsettled to active on September 25, 27 - 28


o active to disturbed not expected


o solar wind will intensify on September (4, 15, 19,) 22 - 23



Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

OK1HH also wrote about his river cruise[2]: "As a captain, I sailed on the MY Daisy (LOA 8 meters, 0.4 tons) on the Czech rivers Elbe and Vltava on the route Melnik to Zernoseky Lake, Usti, Melnik, Luzec, Melnik, a total of 217.4 kilometers. And it was a beautiful week!

Thanks to Carl, K9LA, for sharing this link[3] to a fascinating and informative RSGB lecture about sporadic-e propagation.

Here's an article[4] about Europe's most powerful solar telescope.

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video[5]. I love Dr. Skov's enthusiasm: "Whammo!" And also, of course, her expertise, which she shares so generously.

Sunspot numbers for August 27 - September 2 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, for a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70, 70.1, 70.2, 70, 69.2, 69.5, and 68.3, for a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 10, 14, 9, 26, 16, and 9, for a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 14, 8, 19, 16, and 8, for a mean of 11.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[8] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[12] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/166
[2] https://pujcovna-plavidel.cz/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/IMAG1260-1-min.jpg [3] https://youtu.be/wn5as91ndG4
[4] https://bit.ly/2ETMA75
[5] https://youtu.be/bTkkmrhxMfU
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/11/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: An extended lull in solar activity persists. The smoothed sunspot minimum occurred last December, but the flurry of moderate sunspot activity in August has not continued.

An event to look forward to is the autumnal equinox, which occurs at 1330 UTC on Tuesday, September 22. We should see a seasonal improvement in HF propagation around that date because the northern and southern hemispheres are bathed in roughly equal solar radiation, enhancing north-south propagation.

Thursday, September 10 was the 20th consecutive day with no sunspots, but Spaceweather.com[1] reported a small sunspot with a Cycle 25 magnetic signature may be forming in the sun's southeastern quadrant. As of Thursday night it was still too small to merit numbering.

Average daily solar flux barely budged from 69.6 to 69.7. Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average daily planetary A index declining from 13.1 to 4.4. As with last week's forecast, predicted solar flux is 70 on every day over the next 45 days, September 11 - October 25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 11 - 17; 8 on September 18 - 19; 5 on September 20 - 22; 8, 10, and 15 on September 23 - 25; 10, 25, 15, and 10 on September 26 - 29; 5 on September 30; 8 on October 1; 5 on October 2 - 14; 8 on October 15 - 16; 5 on October 17 - 19, and 8, 10, 15, 10 and 25 on October 20 - 25.



F.K. Kanda, OK1HH, in the Czech Republic has shared geomagnetic activity forecast for September - October 6.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 11 - 13, 16 - 17, 20 - 21


o quiet to unsettled on September 14, 22 - 25, 29, October 1 - 2


o quiet to active on September 15, 18 - 19, 26 - 27, (October 5 - 6)


o unsettled to active (September 28 - 30; October 3 - 4)


o active to disturbed not expected



Solar wind will intensify on September (15, 19,) 22 - 23, (October 3 - 4)

Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.



Frank Donovan, W3LPL shared this on September 6:

"Exactly 3 years ago, on September 6, 2017, the sun ejected the strongest solar flare and earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of Solar Cycle 24. Solar region 2673 produced four X-class solar flares, including a massive X-class solar flare of magnitude 9.3, from 1153 to 1210 UTC.

Just over 8 minutes later, powerful hard X-rays from the flare increased D-layer ionization by several orders of magnitude, completely blacking out HF skywave propagation on the daylight side of Earth for about an hour - an event called a "sudden ionospheric disturbance" (SID).

Solar flares are commonly followed by CMEs. Solar region 2673 ejected powerful Earth-directed CMEs on September 6, 2017, causing visible aurora on September 7 and 8, and a severe geomagnetic storm the planetary Kp index reached magnitude 8 on September 8.

See the SpaceWeatherLive.com YouTube presentation[2].

The strongest solar flare measured in modern times was an X28 flare on October 28, 2003, which blacked out HF skywave propagation on the sunlit side of Earth for several hours. Extremely powerful CMEs on October 28 and 29 caused severe geomagnetic storms on October 29, 30, and 31, and the Kp index reached magnitude 9 on all 3 days.



A 3-hour video[3] from WX6SWW! Coronal Holes and Sources of the Solar Wind - Part 2.



Sunspot numbers for September 3 - 9 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, for a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70, 69.7, 69.2, 69.5, 70.2, 69.9, and 69.7, with a mean of 69.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, and 1, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 7, 5, 5, 4, and 1 with a mean of 4.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://youtu.be/gWTzNe436iw
[3] https://youtu.be/0FG7CxZYbpI
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/18/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Lots of news lately about the solar cycle, but no sunspots. Today, September 18, is the 29th consecutive day with no sunspots.

The news this week was about the Solar Cycle 24 minimum, announced[1] recently as having occurred during December 2019 and indicating the start of Solar Cycle 25. The reason that announcement is just coming out now has to do with the nature of moving averages, which in this case is a smoothed sunspot number, derived from arithmetical averaging of sunspot numbers over a whole year, i.e., half before December and half, to derive a mid-point average.

Recent news stories offer predictions for Solar Cycle 25, such as this one[2] from SpaceRef.

The reporting week of September 10 - 16 gave us an average daily solar flux of 69.2, no significant difference from the previous week's 69.7. Average daily planetary A index was 5.3, up only a little from 4.4 the previous week. Average daily mid-latitude A index went from 4.9 to 5.4.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days (September 18 - November 1) is the same as reported in past recent bulletins, 70 on every day.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 18 - 22; 8, 10, 15, 10, 25, 15, and 10 on September 23 - 29; 5 on September 30 - October 14; 8 on October 15 - 16; 5 on October 17 - 19; then, as in the earlier period, 8, 10, 15, 10, 25, 15, and 10 on October 20 - 26, then back to 5 on October 27 - November 1.

Here's a geomagnetic activity forecast for September 18 - October 13 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on September 21-22, October 6-8


o quiet to unsettled on September 18, October 3-5, 9-10, 13


o quiet to active on September 19-20, 23-24, 29-30, October 1-2


o unsettled to active (September 25-28, October 11-12)


o active to disturbed: not expected


o Solar wind will intensify on September (19,) 22-23, 27-29, October (3-4,) 11-13



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains lower because there are few unambiguous indications.

Steven Rudnick, W1KYB, Santa Fe, New Mexico, asked, "How did they come to the conclusion that we are in a new cycle when the sunspot number has been zero for 27 days now?"

Scientists probably looked at a couple of factors. One is the polarity of sunspots. As the sun transitions from one cycle to the next, the polarity of sunspots changes. It starts with a few sunspots having opposite polarity from sunspots in the recent cycle, then gradually it shifts so eventually the majority have the new cycle polarity.

The other factor is the smoothed sunspot number, which is an average based on an entire year of sunspot numbers. This reduces the noise in the numbers, so it is easier to see the trends.

The smoothed sunspot number for December 2019 would be based on the monthly sunspot numbers for approximately July 2019 through July 2020.

Here's the data[3].

If you look at the monthly averages, they jump all over the place.

The monthly averages for September 2019 through March 2020 were 1.1, 0.40, 0.50, 1.5, 6.2, 0.20, and 1.5.

But the smoothed numbers for those same months were 3.1, 2.6, 2, 1.8, 2.2, 2.8, and currently undetermined for March, placing the lowest number in December.

At some point in the future, the current dearth of sunspots over the past month may just look like noise in retrospect. Or maybe not, should it continue. I hope it does not persist.

From the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), predicted solar flux and sunspot numbers[4] through December 2040.

Here's NASA's take[5] on Solar Cycle 25.

Here's the latest report[6] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for September 10 through 16, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.3, 68.7, 69.3, 69.8, 68.9, 68.8, and 69.5, with a mean of 69.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 7, and 3, with a mean of 5.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 6, 7, 10, 8, and 3 with a mean of 5.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[9] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[13] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/35FQKKZ
[2] https://bit.ly/3iFe9zU
[3] http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles
[4] https://bit.ly/2ZPW4aK
[5] https://go.nasa.gov/2RDSlc0
[6] https://youtu.be/dYibU6gy3yw
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[13] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/25/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Up until September 23, we saw 32 consecutive days with no sunspots. Then new sunspot group AR2773 appeared, which has a magnetic signature indicating it's part of new Solar Cycle 25. Spaceweather.com[1] noted it was a weak one, and may not persist for long. The daily sunspot number for September 23 was 13, indicating three sunspots visible in that group, but the sunspot was gone the next day.

Average daily solar flux rose from 69.2 to 71.1 over the September 17 - 23 reporting week. Geomagnetic indicators were about the same, with average daily planetary A index declining from 5.3 to 5.1.

As of September 23, the predicted solar flux for the following 45 days was 73 on September 24 - October 1, and 70 on October 2 - November 2.

The next day that forecast was revised to a predicted solar flux of 70 on every day until November 8. But on Thursday, September 24, the solar flux was 73.6, closely matching the previous day's forecast.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 25, and 15 on September 25 - 28; 8 on September 29 - 30; 5 on October 1 - 10; 10 on October 11; 5 on October 12 - 19; 10, 12, 16, 28, 18, and 10 on October 20 - 25; 5 on October 26 - November 6; 10 on November 7;and back to 5 on November 8.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for September 25 - October 20, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on October 6 - 7


o quiet to unsettled on October 5, 8 - 9, 13 - 16, 18


o quiet to active on September 30, October 1 - 2, (3 - 4, 10, 12, 17), 19


o unsettled to active September 25 - 26, 28 - 29, (October 11, 20)


o active to disturbed (September 27)


o Solar wind will intensify on September (27 - 28,) 29 - 30, October 1, 13 - 14, (15, 21,) 22



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

The OK1HH forecast sees active to disturbed conditions on September 27, which matches the NOAA and USAF A index prediction of 25 on that date. This disturbance returns about 30 days later with an A index of 28 on October 23.

An interesting article[2] in SciTechDaily discusses, "How NASA & Scientists around the World Track the Solar Cycle."

Ken, N4SO, on the Alabama Gulf Coast reports that he hears three 15-meter beacons daily on 21.150 MHz - LU4AA in Argentina, OA4B in Peru, and YV5B in Venezuela. These are part of the NCDXF beacon network[3], and he rarely hears the 1-W transmission. At the other power levels they are S-3 - S-4.

Here's a recent video[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the "Space Weather Woman."

Sunspot numbers for September 17 - 23 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 13, with a mean of 1.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 69.7, 69.9, 70.6, 70.2, 71.3, 72.4, and 73.3, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 6, and 11, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 10, with a mean of 5.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[11] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://scitechdaily.com/how-nasa-scientists-around-the-world-track-the-solar-cycle/
[3] https://www.ncdxf.org/beacon/beaconlocations.html
[4] https://youtu.be/sitciVFVsfM
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/02/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar wind disturbed HF conditions over the September 24 - 30 reporting week.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 22, while average middle latitude A index went from 5 to 15.6. Average daily sunspot number declined from 1.9 to 1.6; a weak sunspot appeared on only two days, September 23 and 25, with sunspot numbers of 13 and 11, respectively. Average daily solar flux was on the increase, edging up from 71.1 to 73.4.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 2 - 4; 70 on October 5 - 18; 72 on October 19 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 14, and 72 on November 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on October 2 - 3; 5 on October 4 - 10; 10 on October 11; 5 on October 12 - 19; 10, 18, and 20 on October 20 - 22; 24, 16, 38, and 38 on October 23 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7, and 5 on November 8 - 15.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 1 - 27 from OK1HH.


o The geomagnetic field will be


o quiet on October 6 - 7


o quiet to unsettled on October 5, 13 - 16


o quiet to active on October 1 - 2, (3 - 4; 8 - 9; 12, 17,) 18 - 19


o unsettled to active October 10 - 11, 20, 22, (24,) 27


o active to disturbed October 21, 23, (25 - 26)


o Solar wind will intensify on October 1 - 3, 13 - 14, (15; 20 - 25,) 26 - 27.



Notes: Parentheses means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Here is an article[1] about the European Space Agency Solar Orbiter.

Southgate Amateur Radio News posted a 10-meter report[2] from Tony, G4CJC.

W6MVT in Southern California was pleasantly surprised on September 28 after erecting a new vertical. His first catch was E51JD in the South Cook Islands at 0022 UTC. This was his first SSB DX on 15 meters in many years, although the opening vanished as quickly as it came.

Jeff, N8II reported last Saturday, September 26:

"Solar storm today, early about 1400 - 1500Z. Skip was shorter than normal (NJ and NC on 40) and W9 - land on 20 along with a few ME/NB stations (Maine QSO Party [was] this weekend), but after a good run of 5s, 6s, 7, and 0s on 20 SSB this afternoon, the condx are very poor as of 2015Z. The storm is in full force."

Ken, N4SO, shared this report from the Alabama Gulf Coast:

"A wealth of information[3] on the NCDXF beacons is available from the Reverse Beacon Network.

"Also, one more beacon on 21.150 MHZ is heard to add to LU4AA, OA4B, YV5B.

"W6WX is often heard at this location near 2300-0000 UTC. His signals are strong enough to hear 100 W and 10 W."

Sunspot numbers for September 24 - 30 were 0, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 72.6, 74.1, 73.9, 72.8, and 73.3, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 20, 27, 24, 33, 16, and 15, with a mean of 22. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 18, 16, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 15.6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[6] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[10] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/2GxUX8P
[2] https://bit.ly/34gkTOK
[3] http://www.reversebeacon.net/beacons/beacons_ncdxf.php
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[10] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/09/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Geomagnetic activity quieted down over the October 1 - 7 reporting week. Compared to the previous 7 days, average daily mid-latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 6, and average planetary A index slipped from 22 to 7.1.

There were no sunspots this week and only one in the previous 7. Average daily solar flux went from 73.4 to 71.8.

On late Thursday, October 8, however, two new Solar Cycle 25 sunspots appeared[1]! They are both in the southern hemisphere, and, as of this writing, had not been assigned numbers.

Check Spaceweather.com[2] later to see the official sunspot numbers. You can check here[3] Friday night to see the daily sunspot numbers and daily total sunspot area over the last month. I just hope this activity isn't like recent spots, which made only brief, faint appearances.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on October 9 - 14; 70 on October 15 - 18; 72 on October 19 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 14, and 72 on November 15 - 22.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 9 - 19; 10, 18, 20, and 24 on October 20 - 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 18, 20, and 24 on November 16 - 19; 16 on November 20 - 21, and 38 on November 22.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, provided this geomagnetic activity forecast for October 9 - November 4. He reports the geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on October 16, 18, November 2.


o quiet to unsettled on October 9-10, 12-14, 17, 31, November 3-4.


o quiet to active on October 15, 19-20, 28-29, (30,) November 1.


o unsettled to active October 11, 21-24, 27.


o active to disturbed October 25-26.


o Solar wind will intensify on October 13, (14-15, 20-21,) 22, (23-24,) 25-29, (30,) November 2-4.



Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

Here's word from NASA[4] about a new look at sunspots:

Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard predicts[5] a slightly better Solar Cycle 25.

Has the pandemic affected amateur radio activity? Yes[6], and in a good way.

All that isolation seems to allow more time on the air, if HF contest activity is any indicator.

From Jon, N0JK in Kansas:

Some weak sporadic-E from Kansas to Florida October 6 around 1900 UTC, but stations farther east had some outstanding propagation. Stations in Ecuador worked north to the Gulf Coast, then New England on 6 meters.

Propagation mode? F2 can occur in early October between North America and South America, but the solar flux was only 71 and with no major geomagnetic activity. Multi-hop sporadic-E may have been the mode. Some sporadic-E was spotted from New England to Florida, and Florida to Mexico. E-skip is rare in October, too.




HC2FG



20/10/06



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Jeff Hartley, N8II writes from West Virginia:

"I just finished the California QSO Party. Saturday, 15 meters was very marginal; I made about 20 QSOs. Today, 15-meter conditions were excellent to all of California from 1640 - 1850 UTC, enabling me to work about 110 total 15-meter QSOs. 80 and 40 were excellent to California, with the 40-meter peak about 30 - 60 minutes before their sunset Saturday evening. Some signals on 80 were quite loud, and the California stations were hearing my 200 W very well. Also, signals were still good to California almost 2 hours after my sunrise today on 40. 20 was very poor 2200 - 2300Z Saturday, but improved enough for me to run 20-meter SSB stations 2300 - 2340Z. I noticed some possible sporadic E to central Tennessee and Kentucky in the afternoon on 20 (also some unexpected Illinois stations late morning)."

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW explains[7] the cause of recent geomagnetic activity.

Sunspot numbers for October 1 - 7 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 72.8, 72.2, 71.8, 71.2, 72.3, 71.7, and 70.7, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 6, 4, 8, 7, and 5, with a mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 3, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[10] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[14] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/2Fe1yoJ
[2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[3] ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/3dbJM1T
[5] http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-physicist-predicts-a-slightly-better-solar-cycle-25
[6] https://cqwpx.com/stats.htm
[7] https://bit.ly/3iGTtXl
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[14] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/16/2020

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots returned on October 9 - 12, with sunspot numbers of 24, 26, 15 and 15. No sunspot appeared on October 13, but late on Wednesday, October 14, Spaceweather.com[1] reported a new emerging Solar Cycle 25 spot on our sun's southeastern limb, and a daily sunspot number of 12. The next day, NOAA reported sunspot numbers of 12 and 14 on October 14 - 15. Prior to October 9 no sunspots appeared for 2 weeks, and at that time we saw a sunspot number of 13 on September 23 and 11 on September 25.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 13.1, while average daily solar flux went from 71.8 to 73.1.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index dropping from 7.1 to 2.7 and middle latitude A index from 6 to 1.9.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 16 - 17; 72 on October 18 - 31; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72, 71, and 71 on November 11 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 16 - 19; 10 on October 20; 8 on October 21 - 23; 16, 38, and 38 on October 24 - 26; 26, 15, and 10 on October 27 - 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6; 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - 29.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, filed this report.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on: October 16, November 5 - 7, 10 - 13�
o quiet to unsettled on: October 17, 31, November 3, 14 - 16�
o quiet to active on: October (18,) 19 - 20, 28 - 29, (30,) November (1,
4)�
o unsettled to active: October 22, (24,) 27, November 2, 8 ( - 9)�
o active to disturbed: October (21, 23,) 25 - 26�
o Solar wind will intensify on October (20 - 21,) 22, (23 - 25,) 26 - 29, (30,) 31, November (2 - 3,) 4 - 5, (9 - 11).

Note: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Do you think the recent (or current) solar minimum is lasting a little too long? Check this contrarian view[2]. Note the link Victor20-Sep23-SSN_Forecasts.tab toward the bottom of the page. It shows sunspot records and predictions from 1730 until 2101! I can't explain the numbers or how they were derived.

Perhaps someone can help this programmer on Stack Overflow[3] with his Python program for performing linear regression with a sunspot database.

On Thursday, October 15, on the local Puget Sound Repeater Group 146.96 MHz machine, I heard a couple of stations talking about gray-line, long-path propagation on 40 meters. After I inquired, Dean Holtan, N7XS of Camano Island, Washington wrote:

"On Wednesday, October 14, at 1530 UTC, I heard K6MYC and company working ZS6 stations. I also heard a station in the Netherlands, PA1A I believe. He was very loud along with the ZS6 stations, S-9 plus via long path.

"I was listening on my SDRplay RSPduo and a 160-meter loop at 100 feet. If I had gone to the shack I could have worked them. Thursday October 15, 20 meters was nicely open into Europe. KW7Y was working many G stations and EA short path at 1630 UTC. The above was all on phone.

"Last week on October 10 starting at 0130 UTC when I was on vacation, on 20 meters at our sunset I worked UN7JX and VU2MB along with many others in Asiatic Russia. I was called by a station in Lebanon but that was unsuccessful - all on FT8 running 500 W and my 160-meter loop at 100 feet from Camano Island, Washington."

Doug Behl, VE3XDB, linking via internet from Kitchener, Ontario, later wrote:

"Many amateurs today complain about propagation. Conditions haven't been great for several years, although there is some glimmer of hope that things may be getting better. Those experiencing the most frustration seem to be sideband operators. I have had some success over the past few years, using a couple of principles.

1. Use a mode that does better in poor conditions. These days, everyone jumps to FT8, a fantastic, low-power mode that does very well in poor conditions. However, I prefer a mode that creates a more traditional experience. CW and PSK31 are both very good modes for effective contacts when conditions are poor and may provide an opportunity to get to know the other operator a bit better.

2. Work the gray line. Gray-line propagation occurs at daybreak or at dusk. It is very interesting, because it occurs at a very particular time of day, opens up very quickly, and then, when time is up, it just disappears! Here is a short, interesting article[4] on the science and experience of gray line propagation.

Following the above two principles, I have worked western and eastern Europe, the Caribbean and South America, as well as Oceania and Southeast Asia over the past few months, My modest station is a short, inverted L and an old Kenwood transceiver, usually running about 20 W and never more than 40 W. Best results have been achieved on 20, 30, and 40 meters.

To work the world when conditions are poor, I encourage others to try CW and PSK31, especially at dawn or at dusk. You may be surprised by the results achieved using a modest station. We need more operators in both of these modes!"

Ken Brown, N4SO wrote:

"Evidence pointed to a very good propagation path to Asiatic Russia, Japan, and to China on Saturday evening. From October 10, 2330 UTC, 21.074 MHZ, FT8: I first noticed UA0CA calling CQ from Asiatic Russia. It's rare to see a UA0 on the screen, and so far I have never completed a contact. I have also never had completed a contact with China until Saturday evening.

"Calling UA0CA was noticed by BV1EK, China, and he called me and we were able to complete a contact. In this same period, I completed contacts with JA1FGX, JQ1CIV, and JG1SRB.

"A contact with UA0CA or with UA0ZK was not made, but I can appreciate the distance is roughly 5,000 miles away. I will try again on Sunday. Distance to UA0ZK, for example, is 5,391 miles."

Sunspot numbers for October 8 - 14 were 0, 24, 26, 15, 15, 0, and 12, with a mean of 13.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 71.6, 73.1, 73.6, 72.9, 73.8, 72.3, and 74.5, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 0, with a mean of 1.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[7] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. Monthly charts are no longer be updated on this page. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.�

Share[11] your reports and observations.�


[1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
[2] https://bit.ly/3nWoGK0
[3] https://bit.ly/3lVNgIX
[4] https://www.qsl.net/w2vtm/grayline.html
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11] mailto:[email protected]

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� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/23/2020

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports:

Sunspots appeared every day of the past reporting week. Compared to the previous 7 days, the average daily sunspot number increased from 13.1 to 15. Average daily solar flux rose from 73.1 to 74.5. Geomagnetic indicators were up slightly, with average daily planetary A index rising from 2.7 to 5, and middle latitude A index going from 1.9 to 4.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on October 23 - 27; 72 on October 28; 70 on November 1 - 7; 73 on November 8 - 10; 72 on November 11; 71 on November 12 - 13; 70 on November 14 - 23; 72 on November 24 - 27, and 73 on November 28 - December 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 20 on October 23; 15 on October 24 - 26; 12 on October 27; 10 on October 28; 8 on October 29; 5 on October 30 - November 6, 10 on November 7; 5 on November 8 - 15; 10, 15, and 18 on November 16 - 18; 20 on November 19 - 20; 24, 14, and 10 on November 21 - 23; 8 on November 24 - 25, and 5 on November 26 - December 6.

Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, for October 23 - November 18.

The geomagnetic field will be:


o quiet on November 5-7, 10-13


o quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 3, 14-15


o quiet to active on October 28-29, (30,) November (1, 4,) 16


o unsettled to active on October (24,) 27, November 2, (8-9,) 17-18


o active to disturbed on October (23, 25-26)


o Solar wind will intensify on October (23-25,) 26-29, (30,) 31; November (2-3,) 4-5, (12-14,) 15-18

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

We received this report from Jeff, N8II, in West Virginia:

"It took a while - the first 10 days of October were pretty dismal - but recently there has been an opening to Europe daily here on 15 meters, so perhaps conditions on 15 are better than this time last year. Conversely, very little has been heard on 12 or 10, CW or phone. Last year featured some loud signals on 10 meters from South America in the late afternoon.

"It was October 10 when I started putting 15-meter European contacts in my log. MI0SAI in Northern Ireland was S-9 at 1525 on SSB, and SJ6A in Sweden was about S-5 - 7 at 1542 UTC. Sunday, October 11 I worked Germany, England, Italy, The Netherlands, and Croatia, all with S-7 or stronger signals on SSB, between 1417 and 1527 UTC.

"One thing seems apparent: The MUF is so close to 21 MHz that each opening is somewhat different in coverage and peak propagation time. Some other highlights: EU1KY in Belarus on SSB at 1306; OZ8KW in Denmark at 1411; SP9LCW in Poland at 1414; at 1416, SM5YOC and at 1528, SM3LBP in Sweden, and OD5OZ in Lebanon at 1608 (quite late for him) on October 12. The next day, I worked LY2TS in Lithuania on CW at 1516, and I had a CW pile-up of mostly western European stations until 1552, with best DX being southern Russia, R6MI at 1544 and UR7QC at 1547. Signals seem to completely or nearly fade by 1630, and decrease right after 1600. On the October 16, 9K2HS in Kuwait was my first QSO on CW at 1532, and he was S-5 - 6, but heard me on first call. On October 18, I logged 7Z1IS Saudi Arabia at S-7 at 1407. The next day, there was a very strong opening to the UK from 1515 to 1548. On the October 20, OH5LF in Finland was S-9+ when we signed on SSB at 1407; his antenna was 5/5-element Yagis, and he was running 1.5 kW remote from his summer cottage.

"Strong European SSB signals showed up on October 20, 1330 - 1510 after starting with 9K2HS at S-5 on SSB. I worked three stations in a row in Lebanon on SSB at 1500 UTC. Conditions dropped rapidly after 1510, very early for the band to close. Other stations worked during the European opening were ZS6TVB in South Africa and ZD7FT on St. Helena Island, both with strong signals."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq) sent this:

"Yikes! October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E (Es) was active on 6 meters along the east coast, Saturday, October 17, 2100 to 2300 UTC. This is 25 days past the autumnal equinox.

"Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of a solar minimum.

"I was monitoring FT8 on 50.313 MHz waiting for Es to show-up along the Gulf of Mexico. Then it happened. The first direct decodes:

215700 -3 -0.4 1527 ~ WA2FZW W4KBX EL98

220345 -2 -0.4 2178 ~ KK2DOG W4KBX EL98

220545 -1 -0.4 2177 ~ KC3PIB W4KBX EL98

220845 -9 -0.5 1566 ~ CQ K2IL EL97

"Grid Squares: EL98 in central Florida, around Orlando, and EL97 in south central Florida, north of Lake Okeechobee.

"Now that the band is open with Es expanding farther south, I decided to try for contacts on the SSB calling frequency on 50.125 MHz.

"When I rolled down there, several operators were already having conversations about how pleasant it was that the band came back to life since the summer months.�

"At 2252 UTC, I put out my first CQ. AG4N, Bill, replied from West Point, Georgia, which is some 300 yards from the Alabama state line. From my location to AG4GN, 230� azimuth, distance 771 air miles.�

"I gave Bill a 4/7 signal report with QSB.�

"The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles), and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

"By 2335 UTC the band started to collapse, with signal reports sliding down to 2/2.

"No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, or other northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

"Even if the band sounds dead, I urge everyone to continue monitoring the 6-meter SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it one step farther and call CQ. You might be pleasantly rewarded, even if you are running 10 W into a 6-meter horizontal half-wave dipole less than 8 feet off the ground."

Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted a video[1].

Sunspot numbers for October 15 - 21 were 14, 14, 15, 28, 12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 15. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.8, 75.3, 73.1, 75.9, 74.8, 74.7, and 73.7, with a mean of 74.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, and 10, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 7, with a mean of 4.1.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[2] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[3] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out[4] K9LA's Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive[5] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[6] website.

Instructions[7] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share[8] your reports and observations.


[1] https://bit.ly/34mi67T
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[8] mailto:[email protected]

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/19/2024

Big increase in solar activity this week, with average daily sunspot number rising from 129 to 215.9, and solar flux from 176.6 to 226.5.

Fourteen new sunspot groups emerged. Two were on July 11, one on July 12, three on July 13, one on July 14, two more on July 15, three more on July 16 and two more on July 17.

On Thursday (after the reporting week) the daily sunspot number was 276, the highest value for cycle 25, according to Jon Jones, N0JK. A new sunspot group appeared that day.

Average planetary A index was quiet at 6, and the middle latitude number was 8.

More quiet geomagnetic indicators are forecast for the entire month of August, with planetary A index predicted at 5 on every day.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on July 19-21, 200 on July 22-25, 180 on July 26-27, 175 on July 28, 170 on July 29-31, 165 on August 1-2, then 170, 180 and 190 on August 3-5, 200 on August 6-11, and 230 on August 12-14, then 210 on August 15, 200 on August 16-18, then 195 and 185 on August 19-20, and 180 on August 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 16, 20 and 8 on July 19-22, and 5 on July 23 through the entire month of August and possibly the first week in September.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 18, 2024.

Increased solar flare activity continues. M-class eruptions are almost the order of the day and X-class eruptions are no exception. Their main source is currently the largest AR3751. While it is still in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk, it will cross the central meridian as early as July 19. After that the probability of an Earth impact by a possible CME will increase. In the southwest quadrant we observe five sunspot groups: AR 3742, AR3743, AR3745, AR3747 and AR3758, which were formed by the spill of the original extremely active May AR3664 (designated as AR3697, AR3723 in subsequent solar rotations).

Solar activity remains high and geomagnetic disturbances are less frequent and do not last long. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, although mostly slightly above average level, vary irregularly. The sporadic layer E will continue for a few more weeks. We will continue to see fading during the day, in particular at lower shortwave frequencies (on the 7 MHz band and much more often and longer on 3.5 MHz) during moderate flares. Entire shortwave bursts will die down here and there during the largest flares, especially long-lasting X-class flares.� F. K. Janda, OK1HH

Video from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE[1]

Solar Flare: https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA[2]

Martian aurora: https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21[3]

Blackouts: https://bit.ly/468L89c[4] ��https://bit.ly/3LrTxex[5]

https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6[6] ��https://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq[7]

Cycle 26: https://bit.ly/3YaG02h[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11].

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . �

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] �

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15] �

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17 2024 were 188, 162, 214, 217, 205, 250, and 275, with a mean of 215.9. 10.7 cm flux was 205, 209.7, 238.3, 233.9, 233.2, 241.9, and 223.8, with a mean of 226.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 7, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 6, 9, 8, 12, and 7, with a mean of 8.

�


[1] https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE
[2] https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA
[3] https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21
[4] https://bit.ly/468L89c
[5] https://bit.ly/3LrTxex
[6] https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6
[7] https://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq
[8] https://bit.ly/3YaG02h
[9] mailto:[email protected]
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/09/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0211UT/09 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Recent CME activity is expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 09-Aug and on 10-Aug. Further CME activity on 08-Aug is now expected to also increase geomagnetic activity on 11-Aug.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 09-12 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

09 Aug: G0, chance of G1 late in UT day

10 Aug: G1-G2

11 Aug: G1-G2

12 Aug: G1 periods early in UT day, then G0

Solar activity jumped over the past reporting week (August 1-7) with average daily sunspot number rising from 208.9 to 222.3 and solar flux from 207.3 to 255.3.

Spaceweather.com reported that sunspot numbers have reached a 23-year high. On August 8 the daily sunspot number climbed to 332. We must be at the peak of cycle 25, but I hope we have more to go.

Geomagnetic numbers were fundamentally unchanged, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 14 to 15.7 and middle latitude index from 13.1 to 13.4.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged. One on August 1, two on August 2, three on August 4 and one on August 7.

Predicted solar flux shows 300 on August 9-10, then 260, 250, 270 and 280 on August 11-14, then 300, 205, 200 and 185 on August 15-18, 180 on August 19-22, 200 and 210 on August 23-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29- 30, and 240 on August 31 through September 7, then 230, 225 and 210 on September 8-10, 205 on September 11-12, then 200 and 185 on September 13-14, and 180 on September 15-18. �

Predicted planetary A index is 34, 52, 36 and 22 on August 9-12, 5 on August 13-21, then 10 and 8 on August 22-23, 5 on August 24 to September 11, 8 on September 12, and 5 on September 13-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Of the five sunspot groups that moved from the southeast quadrant of the solar disk to the southwest during the past seven days, two of them (AR 3774 and AR 3777) are seeing moderate eruptions almost daily.

"There were three such eruptions on August 7 alone, while CMEs were observed in two of them. Their arrival on Earth is scheduled for August 10. It could cause a geomagnetic disturbance in the G2 (moderate) to G3 (strong) level. Which could be good news for the initial stage of development of decameter wave propagation conditions.

"But if the ejected clouds of particles of solar origin are faster and arrive already on the night of August 9-10, this is bad news for subsequent developments. We'll see.

"In a few days, the current largest active region AR 3780 will be located in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

"Sunspot activity in July was the highest it has been in 23 years. �The average monthly sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5. The last time this happened was in 2001. The last smoothed average can be calculated for this January: R12 = 131.1."

Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence Newsletter. https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y[1]

The Worked All Europe CW DX Contest is this weekend. https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/[2]

Predicting solar max: https://bit.ly/3AafcFu[3]

Flare August 8-9: https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1[4]

Aurora: https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2[5]

From David Moore: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm[6]

Sunspot number hits 23 year high:

https://bit.ly/3LURJej[7]

https://bit.ly/46AGnFL[8]

https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/[9]

https://bit.ly/3AdejvP[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][11] .� When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] .�

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for August 1 through 7, 2024 were 260, 232, 217, 194, 189, 222, and 242, with a mean of 222.3. 10.7 cm flux was 234.4, 247.1, 244.6, 240.8, 247.3, 270, and 303.2, with a mean of 255.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 9, 10, 46, 10, 6, and 7, with a mean of 15.7. Middle latitude A Index was 22, 9, 9, 28, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 13.4.

�


[1] https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y
[2] https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/
[3] https://bit.ly/3AafcFu
[4] https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1
[5] https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2
[6] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm
[7] https://bit.ly/3LURJej
[8] https://bit.ly/46AGnFL
[9] https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/
[10] https://bit.ly/3AdejvP
[11] mailto:[email protected]
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/16/2024

With sunspot numbers and solar flux at times both above 300, recent daily space weather has been exciting for radio amateurs who watch the sun. We like higher activity because it correlates with a dense ionosphere, bringing with it better conditions on higher frequencies.

This extreme activity also comes with greater geomagnetic disturbance, which cause higher absorption of HF signals.�

For example, on August 12 the solar flux was 272.4 and sunspot number was 245. Middle latitude A index was 51 and planetary A index was 122, very high values indicating the G4 geomagnetic storm.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week, two on August 8, four on August 11 and one on August 14.

On August 9 the daily sunspot number was 382, the highest in two decades.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 222.3 to 255, while average daily solar flux increased from 255.3 to 284.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 15.7 to 28.6, and average daily middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia) from 13.4 to 17.9.

The solar flux outlook for the next few weeks looks promising, with values peaking at 300 in the first week of September.

Predicted values from forecasters Jones and Kiser at the US Air Force are 230, 225 and 220 on August 16-18, 215 on August 19-20, then 210, 205, 200 and 210 on August 21-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29-30, then 240, 245 and 270 on August 31 through September 2, 300 on September 3-5, 290 on September 6-7, 280 on September 8, and 270 on September 9-11, then 260 on September 12-14, then 250, 240, 230, 210, 200 and 210 on September 15-20, and 220 on September 21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 18, 30, 25 and 10 on August 16-20, then 5, 5 and 8 on August 21-23, then 5 on August 24 to September 17, then 18 and 12 on September 18-19, and 5 on September 10 until November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 15, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

The current maximum of the "eleven-year" solar cycle is gradually surpassing all expectations and all predictions. Medium-mass flares (M-class) are observed almost daily and are often intense enough to silence radio signals at least in the longer part of short waves by increasing the attenuation in the lower ionosphere. Large solar flares (X-class) are no exception. They usually (shortly) knock out the entire shortwave range.

Many eruptions are accompanied by a particle cloud ejection (CME). If this happens near or west of the central meridian, it is very likely to "hit" the globe and cause a geomagnetic disturbance. In the case of multiple particle clouds flying toward the Earth at the same time, the first one may clear the way for the following ones, causing an extremely strong disturbance. Which is exactly what we saw on August 11-12.

The geomagnetic disturbance reached G4 level, while not only auroras were observed in mid-latitudes during the disturbance, but also a phenomenon known as STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), until relatively recently confused with auroras. We observe it as a colored tilted ribbon. Thanks to the simultaneous peak of the Perseids meteor shower, we were able to witness a truly extraordinary spectacle.

The height of the highest critical frequencies of the f0F2 layer, and thus the MUF, was on average at an eleven-year low of solar activity on August 12. However, with the difference that as the radio wave passed through the ionosphere, a large attenuation was produced, largely due to scattering on inhomogeneities. The improvement in propagation conditions was slow and gradual. A slightly better 13 August was followed by a deterioration on 14 August. Situation was only slightly above average on 15 August. But with that said, we already knew of other CMEs heading towards Earth.

We don't expect a drop in solar activity anytime soon, if only because we know of other active regions on the far side of the Sun thanks to helioseismological observations. Soon we will be able to observe them on the eastern edge of the solar disk.

W3LPL wrote in an email: �

"Ain't this solar maximum great?

Solar Cycle 25 is now much, much stronger than anyone anticipated, and it s slowly growing stronger through at least this weekend.

Today's Wednesday estimated international sunspot number is 281. �It's increasingly likely that we'll have widespread coast-to-coast and worldwide 6 meter F2 propagation during about half of the days between late October and at least early February.

Widespread F2 openings are likely to bring 6 meter CW and SSB to life like we haven't experienced in more than 20 years.

The first sign of enhanced 6 meter F2 will be increasingly frequent TEP from Europe and North America to South America and the South Atlantic islands. TEP may begin very sporadically by late August and become increasingly frequent later in September and especially during October.

Coast-to-coast F2 propagation and propagation crossing the Atlantic to Europe and Africa may begin sporadically during September and October and become frequent and long lasting by early November.

Effective 6 meter antennas can be very small.

3 element Yagis are small, lightweight and very effective. 20 foot antenna height is adequate but sloping terrain or higher antennas perform much better. Heights higher that 50 feet are not necessary and in many cases perform poorly.

Are you ready for this once in a lifetime experience?"

I want to remind everyone of this useful web site: https://prop.kc2g.com/[1]

Record breaking number of sunspots:

https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25[2]

https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8[3] �

Sky & Telescope: https://tinyurl.com/musyznst[4] �

Massive flare: https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp[5]

Newsweek on aurora: https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs[6]

Cycle 26: https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc[7] �

Forbes claims quarter century max:

https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph[8]

Red Deer, Alberta: https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f[9]

Great solar image: https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws[10] �

New report from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM[11] �

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][12] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13]�and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]�.

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at: �

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at: http://k9la.us/[17] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[18] �

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14 2024 were 337, 382, 234, 194, 245, 199, and 194, with a mean of 255. 10.7 cm flux was 336, 305.5, 291.1, 281.5, 272.4, 259.9, and 248.2, with a mean of 284.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 7, 28, 122, 17, and 12, with a mean of 28.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 9, 8, 23, 51, 12, and 11, with a mean of 17.9.


[1] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[2] https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25
[3] https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8
[4] https://tinyurl.com/musyznst
[5] https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp
[6] https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs
[7] https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc
[8] https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph
[9] https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f
[10] https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws
[11] https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM
[12] mailto:[email protected]
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/23/2024

�Ten new sunspot groups appeared over this reporting week (August 15-21), but both solar flux and sunspot numbers were lower, due to the extraordinary numbers in the previous week.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 255 to 180.3, while average daily solar flux went from 284.9 to 232.7.

Geomagnetic numbers were quieter. Average daily planetary A index declined from 28.6 to 11.9, and average daily middle latitude numbers sank from 17.8 to 12.

On August 17 the planetary A index was 31, caused by a CME around 1400 UTC. A strong G3 geomagnetic storm was the result.

One new sunspot group appeared on August 15, and two more emerged on every day from August 16 to 19, and one more on August 21.

Predicted solar flux is 230 and 235 on August 23-24, then 240 on August 25-26, 230 on August 27, 235 on August 28-29, 205, 210 and 215 on August 30 through September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 on September 4-6, 220 on September 7, 225 on September 9, 230 on September 10-12, and 225 on September 13-16, 215 and 210 on September 17-18, 200 on September 19-20, then 205, 210, 205 and 200 on September 21-24, and 205 on September 25-26.

The planetary A index prediction shows 8 on August 23, and 5 on August 24 to September 17, 18 and 12 on September 18-19, then 5 on September 20 through the first week in October.

I get mail asking why ten meters isn't open during all of the recent high solar activity. The reason is the season. We have to be much closer to the autumnal equinox to see ten meters open regularly.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 22, 2024 from OK1HH.

"After the solar flare X1.1 on 14 August, accompanied by a CME, we expected a geomagnetic storm. A more accurate prediction was provided by the NASA model - the disturbance in agreement with it started on 17 August around 1400 UT. The geomagnetic storm was strong (G3), probably triggered by the arrival of more than one CME.

We observe two to three sunspot groups on the solar disk that can produce moderate flares (they have a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field). There are usually 10 - 12 groups in total. Coronal holes are few and relatively small, which reduces the likelihood of an increase in solar wind speed. Semi-regularly, days with higher MUF values (until Aug 17, Aug 19 and Aug 21) alternated with decreases (Aug 14, Aug 18, Aug 20...), which could only be predicted to a very limited extent and only for shorter intervals based on measured interplanetary magnetic field variations. But these are mostly impossible to predict."

Solar activity has remained at a 20-year high for most of this summer, and so far there is no indication of a possible decline.

20 year record: https://bit.ly/3ACRphS[1] .

Kepler. Thanks to David Moore for this:

https://cnn.it/3Xff40v[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] �

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this. Understanding Solar Indices from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] �

Sunspot numbers for August 15 through 21 2024 were 164, 169, 170, 170, 213, 200, and 176, with a mean of 180.3. 10.7 cm flux was 227.4, 224.9, 229.5, 231, 239.1, 238.2, and 239, with a mean of 232.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 31, 13, 10, 7, and 8, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A Index was 6, 11, 24, 15, 11, 9, and 8, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ACRphS
[2] https://cnn.it/3Xff40v
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/30/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0200 UTC/29 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

The solar wind environment remains elevated due to ongoing CME effects.� G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 29 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 29 Aug: G0-G1."

This week seven new sunspot groups emerged, with two on August 22, one on August 25, two on August 26 and two more on August 28.

Average daily sunspot number declined slightly from 180.3 to 177.1, and average daily solar flux from 232.7 to 229.

Planetary and middle latitude A index averages were about the same, at 12.3 and 12.

Predicted solar flux shows 210, 220 and 215 on August 30 to September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 and 230 on September 4-5, 275 on September 6-8, 280, 285, 280 and 280 on September 9-12, then 275, 270, 265, 260, 255, 250, and 245 on September 13-19, then 240 on September 20-21, then 235, 230, 235, 240 and 245 on September 22-26, 250 on September 27-28, then 255, 260, 265 and 270 on September 29 through October 2, and 275 on October 3-5.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 30 to September 1, 5 on September 2-16, then 8, 8 and 12 on September 17-19, then 5 on September 20 to mid-October.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 29, 2024 from OK1HH.

"About 10 sunspot groups can still be observed in the solar disk, two to four of which have magnetic field configurations that are indicative of middle magnitude flares.

After several solar flares in recent days, the arrival of CMEs to Earth was widely expected. This was also true for the X1.1/2b class flare in AR 3784 (N12E05) with a maximum on August 14 at 0640 UT, accompanied by bursts of solar radio noise types II/IV. However, nothing special continued to happen either. So much so that some authors canceled the predictions of a geomagnetic disturbance on 27 August. Which was a mistake - the disturbance began on the afternoon of August 27, while reaching G2 level.

For the state of the Earth's ionosphere, this happened at the right time. In the positive phase of the disturbance, the highest usable frequencies of the F2 layer increased, while propagation from Europe to the west coast of the USA through the ionospheric waveguides was observed up to around the boundary between HF and VHF.

As expected, on 28 August the evolution in the negative phase of the disturbance continued with a significant decrease in f0F2, including an increase in attenuation.� Surprisingly rapid improvement already occurred on the following day, August 29, while can be attributed not only to the high solar radiation in the ongoing solar cycle maximum, but also to the change in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field."

Check Tamitha Skov's latest videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][2] .� When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at�

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7]

Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for August 22 through 28 2024 were 175, 180, 172, 178, 202, 170, and 163, with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was 230.6, 241.7, 232.6, 232.6, 232, 221.3, and 211.9, with a mean of 229. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 10, 7, 5, 11, and 26, with a mean of 12.3. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 8, 12, 8, 4, 11, and 30, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/06/2024

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over the past week.

Two appeared on August 30, three more on August 31, another two on
September 2 and one more on September 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 177.1 to 155.3, while
average daily solar flux barely changed from 229 to 230.3.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported the average daily sunspot number for
August was 200, the highest monthly average in the past two decades.

Reader David Moore sent in this link about the same thing:

https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD[2]

Predicted solar flux is 235 on September 6, 225 on September 7-8,
230 on September 9-13, then 250, 255 and 245 on September 14-16,
then 240, 235, 240, and 245 on September 17-20, 240 on September
21-22, 245 on September 23-24, then 240, 235, 230 and 225 on
September 25-28, then 230, 240, 245, and 250 on September 29 through
October 2, then 240 on October 3-4, and 245 on October 5-6, 240
again on October 7-10, then 250 and 255 on October 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on September 6,and 5 on September
7, 10 on September 8-9, 8 on September 10-11, 5 on September 12-16,
8 on September 17-18, 5 on September 19-25, and 25 on September
26-27, then 15 and 8 on September 28-29, and 5 on September 30
through October 4, 10 on October 5, and 5 on October 6-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 5, 2024 from OK1HH:

"September 6th was the sixth day of a continuous influx of
solar-origin protons into the Earth's atmosphere. The likely source
is on the far side of the Sun, probably in AR3792, possibly AR3796.
This influx briefly intensified on 3 September at noon UTC.

"Overall solar activity remains high. The solar flux is again close
to the values measured on August 6-13, about 27 days ago, or during
the last solar revolution. Summer in the Earth's northern hemisphere
is slowly coming to an end and shortwave propagation conditions
should improve on average. This is happening, but at a slower and
more erratic pace. The reason for this is the irregular changes in
the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and the parameters of the
solar wind. Sometimes the changes are even opposite to what we would
expect - for example, on 4 September between 1000 to 1500 UTC there
was a rather significant and unexpected increase in geomagnetic
activity, without any major changes in MUF and overall propagation
conditions.

"We are now observing only a single small coronal hole on the Sun
now. It is located near the central meridian and there is no active
region nearby. Respectively, all three larger ARs, capable of
producing eruptions of moderate magnitude, are south of the solar
equator. Accordingly, we find no change in the short-term forecasts
from the current state. More optimistic are the medium-term
forecasts, which take into account seasonal changes."

The "Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence" Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf[3]

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [10].

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to� ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for August 29 through September 4 2024 were 124,
143, 180, 156, 200, 133, and 151, with a mean of 155.3. 10.7 cm flux
was 204, 214.2, 232.6, 231.6, 225.5, 242.1, and 261.8, with a mean
of 230.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 23, 26, 16, 8, 7,
and 13, with a mean of 14. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 16, 19,
16, 7, 10, and 16, with a mean of 12.7.

�


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD
[3] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf
[4] https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Sep 06 2024 14:35:38

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Throwing the numbers together in a paragraph can make it harder--especially for newbies, like me--to assimilate the information. A tabular arrangement would be more logical for this type of data. For example, here's the Predicted Solar Flux as a table:

Predicted Solar flux
-------------------------------------------------
September 06 - 235 September 26 - 235
September 07-08 - 225 September 27 - 230
September 09-13 - 230 September 28 - 225
September 14 - 250 September 29 - 230
September 15 - 255 September 30 - 240
September 16 - 245 October 01 - 245
September 17 - 240 October 02 - 250
September 18 - 235 October 03-04 - 240
September 19 - 240 October 05-06 - 245
September 20 - 245 October 07-10 - 240
September 21-22 - 240 October 11 - 250
September 23-24 - 245 October 12 - 255
September 25 - 240

A similar approach could be taken with the other two sections mentioned earlier.

Hope this has been helpful. Later daze!

---
� Synchronet � End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to ARRL de WD1CKS on Sun Sep 08 2024 09:58 pm

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.
--
digital man (rob)

Synchronet/BBS Terminology Definition #31:
FF = Form Feed (ASCII 12, Ctrl-L)
Norco, CA WX: 96.4�F, 30.0% humidity, 3 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
� Synchronet � Vertrauen � Home of Synchronet � [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

Thanks.

---
� Synchronet � End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

The messages you're referring to are imoprted from the AARL by WLARB (Whisky Lovers Amateur Radio BBS), which was created by Deuce (then K6BSD, now W8BSD).
--
digital man (rob)

Breaking Bad quote #10:
Get a big old raging hard-on at the idea of catching this piece of shit! - Hank Norco, CA WX: 93.6�F, 23.0% humidity, 8 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
� Synchronet � Vertrauen � Home of Synchronet � [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

09/13/2024

With sunspot numbers up and solar flux decreasing, we saw ten new
sunspot groups this week; two on September 6, three on September 7,
two on September 8, one on September 9, and two on September 11.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 155.3 to 178.4, while
average daily solar flux declined from 230.3 to 223.7.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 14 to 7.9 and middle latitude numbers from 12.7
to 11.7.

The solar flux forecast calls for 10.7 cm numbers at 210 on
September 13-14, 205 on September 15-20, then 225 and 220 on
September 21-22, then 225 on September 23-24, then 230, 235, 230 and
225 on September 25-28, and 240 on September 29-30, then 240, 245
and 230 on October 1-3, 220 on October 4-5, 225 on October 6-7, 220
on October 8-9, 225 on October 10-11, 220 and 215 on October 12-13,
210 on October 14-15, then back up to 240 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 35 and 25 on September 13-14, then 15
on September 15-16, then 12, 15, 12 and 12 on September 17-20, 5 on
September 21-25, then 25, 25, 15 and 10 on September 26-29, then 5
on September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, then 30, 22
and 8 on October 7-9, 5 on October 10-13, 8 on October 14-15, and 5
on October 16-22, then 25 on October 23-24.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The solar wind speed, as measured in geostationary orbit, increased
in two jumps on 12 September - first shortly after midnight UTC from
360 km/s to 430 km/s, then to 520 km/s after 0818 UTC. Meanwhile,
the polarity of the longitudinal (north-south) component of the IMF
(Bz) was negative. The consequence was a significant deterioration
of shortwave propagation conditions.

"The development continued on 12 September as the X1.3 solar flare
was detected at 0943 UTC. The source was a new AR turning into view
off the southeast limb (former AR 3792, whose high activity during
the parade on the Sun's far side was well known thanks to
helioseismological observations).

"However, the strong (G3) Geomagnetic Storm followed, while
threshold was reached at 14:43 UTC. Values of critical frequencies
f0F2 in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere of the earth
were 2 MHz lower compared to the previous days. Now it can be
expected geomagnetic disturbance around September 14 (possible
arrival of particles from the September 11 CME). We may wait until
September 18 for quiet days."

WP3GW wrote:

"After a 4 month hiatus, just began again on FT8. I have noted that
the SFI has been more than 200, and have worked European stations at
about 2200 UTC, three hours after propagation normally closes to the
Caribbean.

"And have seen signals late night and in mornings before the Sun
comes up in 10 meters, making it a twenty plus hours open band. Have
made 7 new countries on FT8 in almost 3 weeks.

"Hope these conditions keep good for this contest season.

"Cheers, Angel Santana WP3GW."

Jeff, N8II wrote:

"There have been somewhat limited openings to Europe on 10 meters
for about 2 weeks. On Monday September 2 I worked several Southern
EU and several UK stations, some with good signals. Today, the 8th
was exceptionally good. Not only was the 10 meter band open to all
but possibly NE Europe, but stations in the Middle East were S9 to
S9+20 dB. On SSB I worked A42K, Oman, and 4K6FO, Azerbaijan. Also,
UA9CTT, Asiatic Russia was S9+20 dB and UN4L, Kazakhstan was peaking S8 all of them working the All Asia Contest. I called CQ with the
majority of my callers from the UK all with good signals, many over
S9. The only somewhat weak Brit was a mobile running 5W who was
peaking S5. OH6TS, Finland answered my CQ, and I heard SM5CAK,
Sweden over S9. I was also called by Hungary and Romania. It was
like the middle of October on a good day, very surprising 2 weeks
before the equinox. All of my QSOs were between 1400-1520Z. I also
worked JE6RFM on 15M SSB during that time and heard a JA5 about S7.
There was an Indonesian also on 15M working the Asian contest who
was S9+.

"The Summer has been frustrating with very limited activity except
in contests above 20M. 20M was open through most of the night to
Europe throughout the June-August period.

"The sporadic-E was poor this year, fewer openings and mostly single
hop. Every day 10M was open to Central and South America. Around the
middle of August, we started getting daily openings to the West
Coast. Since then, most days were open to AF and OC. Hawaii has been
loud on several occasions including the NAQP Phone test 2nd weekend
of August and was also briefly loud during the Hawaii QP last
weekend of August.

"Today September 12 there was a good F2 opening to EU; I worked two
R4s (next to Asia), several SP, DL, I, HB9, F.� YL3BF called and was
about S4-6. The UK was not part of the opening. One of the Germans
was running 15W to a 5M long indoor wire and was peaking S9!"

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs[1]

Impressive sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [9]"Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11 2024 were 167, 188, 179,
176, 213, 147, and 179, with a mean of 178.4. 10.7 cm flux was
240.7, 248.9, 221.7, 227.6, 214.8, 205.2, and 207, with a mean of
223.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 7, 9, 9, 7, and 8,
with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 8, 9, 19, 9, 7,
and 18, with a mean of 11.1.
�


[1] https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs
[2] https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

That made me giggle... LOL

---
� Synchronet � Telegraph BBS - Fayette Co, OH USA

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

He's one of the maintainers of the synchronet software, as well as
syncterm, some of the js doors, and other software.

If you need to contact him, it is usually best to try in the synchronet IRC channel.


* SLMR 2.1a * Catastrophe n. an award for the cat with the nicest buns
---
� Synchronet � CAPCITY2 * capcity2.synchro.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/Rlogin/HTTP

09/20/2024

Solar activity was quiet over the past week, but geomagnetic numbers
were way, way up.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 178.4 to 120, and average
daily solar flux from 223.7 to 175.7.

Average daily planetary A index rocketed from 7.9 to 35.7, and
middle latitude numbers from 11.1 to 23.4.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week; one each on
September 13 and 14, two on September 16, and two each on September
17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 160 and 155 on September 20-21, 150 on
September 22-26, then a huge leap to 230 and 225 on September 27-28,
240 on September 29 through October 2, 230 on October 3, 220 on
October 4-5, then 215, 205 and 207 on October 6-8, 201, 186 and 172
on October 9-11, 173 and 175 on October 12-13, 170 on October 14-16,
165 on October 17-18, 170 on October 19, 225 on October 20-21, then
230, 225, 230 and 225 on October 22-25, then 240 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on September 20-22, 5 on
September 23-26, then 25, 15 and 10 on September 27-29, then 5 on
September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, and 5 on October
7-9, 10 on October 10, 20 on October 11-13, 15 on October 14, 10 on
October 15-16, then 5 on October 17-22, 25 on October 23-24, and 15
and 10 on October 25-26.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 19, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity has decreased slightly in recent days, but
before that AR3825 produced energetic flares, including two of the
largest: X1.3 on September 12th and a very strong X4.5 on September
14th. The arrival of the CMEs and the onset of the disturbance,
expected on the afternoon of UT Sept 16th, was delayed and
registered as an influx of protons in the solar wind at 22:44 UT
Sept 16th. After that, a geomagnetic disturbance started to develop,
which significantly affected the shortwave propagation conditions,
especially on 17 September.

"A more pronounced upsurge in solar flux can be expected once the
large active regions known to be present through helioseismology
start to reappear at the eastern limb of the solar disk. This should
happen around 26 September. However, a repeat of the August 28-29
disturbance is expected in the same period. Therefore, an
improvement in propagation conditions can be expected before
September 26, or better yet, shortly during the onset of the
disturbance-after which a deterioration will occur."

New STCE newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[1]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18 2024 were 160, 127, 136,
68, 103, 140, and 106, with a mean of 120. 10.7 cm flux was 201.2,
185.8, 172.4, 172.8, 169.2, 165.4, and 163.3, with a mean of 175.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 67, 37, 21, 19, 23, 71, and 12,
with a mean of 35.7. Middle latitude A Index was 36, 22, 22, 16, 19,
39, and 10, with a mean of 23.4.

�


[1] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[2] https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/27/2024

Seven sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on September
19, three on September 20, one each on September 22 and 23, and the
last on September 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 120 to 137.2, and
average daily solar flux shifted from 175.7 to 164.3.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index changed from 35.7 to 14.3, and middle latitude A index from
23.4 to 10.7.

Predicted solar flux is 180 September 27 to October 1, 190 on
October 2-6, 185 on October 7-9, 180 on October 10, 175 on October
11-16, 170 on October 17-18, 165 on October 19, 160 on October
20-23, 165 on October 24-26, then 170 and 175 on October 27-28, 180
on October 29-30, and 190 on October 31 through November 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 27-28, 8 on September
29-30, 5 on October 1-4, 10 on October 5-6, 5 on October 7-9, then
10, 20 and 19 on October 10-12, and 5 on October 13-21, 8 on October
22-23, 5 on October 24-31, and 8 on November 1-2.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 26, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Solar flare activity is generally lower than it was in the first
half of September, when M-class solar flares were common and X-class
flares also occurred. The last significant M-class flare, including
a CME, was observed on September 22. However, the Earth's magnetic
field activity increased on September 25-26, incidentally in good
agreement with the forecast.

"Propagation conditions, especially in the shorter half of the
shortwave range, have understandably improved, but not as much as we
might have expected in the run-up to the equinox. This was
influenced by a decrease in solar activity (compared to August
levels) - and of course an increase in geomagnetic activity.

"Unlike in times relatively recently past, any of us can monitor not
only total solar activity, but also changes in solar wind
parameters. Both its speed and the concentration of free electrons
and protons ejected by flares. Changes in the ionosphere follow
quickly, but not always in the same way. It is also always the
result of previous developments."

Latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for September 19 through 25 2024 were 109, 113, 117,
114, 224, 123, and 160, with a mean of 137.1. 10.7 cm flux was
161.2, 153.8, 158, 162.8, 167.4, 172.4, and 174.2, with a mean of
164.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 7, 6, 5, 13, 17, and
32, with a mean of 14.3. Middle latitude A Index was 15, 6, 6, 3, 9,
12, and 24, with a mean of 10.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/04/2024

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0042UT/04 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Two coronal mass ejections first observed on 01-Oct and 03-Oct are
expected to impact Earth over 04-05 Oct. Lack of analyzable corona
graph imagery makes arrival time predictions uncertain.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-06 OCTOBER 2024.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
04 Oct:� G3, chance of G4
05 Oct:� G3, chance of G4
06 Oct:� G1-G2

New sunspot groups emerged on every day over the past week. Two new
regions appeared on September 26, another on September 27, two more
on September 28, another on September 29, another on September 30,
three more on October 1 and another on October 2, for a total of
eleven.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 137.1 to 164.7, and average
daily solar flux from 164.3 to 213.1. Average daily planetary A
index shifted from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 310 on October 4-6, 300 on October 7, 290 on
October 8-10, 175 on October 11-16, 170 on October 17-21, then 175,
180, 185, 190 and 195 on October 22-26, then 200 on October 27-29,
205 on October 30 through November 4, then 200 and 185 on November
5-6 and 175 on November 7-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 54, 94, 72, 22 and 15 on October 4-8,
5 on October 9-10, then 20 and 19 on October 11-12, then 5 on
October 13-21, then 28 and 10 on October 22-23, 5 on October 24-26,
and 10 on October 27, then 5 on October 28-31, 10 on November 1-2, 5
on November 3-5, then 10, 20, and 19 on November 6-8, and 5 on
November 9 and the foreseeable future.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 3, 2024 from OK1HH:

"After AR3811 disappeared from our field of view behind the
southwestern limb of the solar disk on September 12, it was
continuously tracked by helioseismological methods until September
29, when it reappeared in the southeast, numbered AR3842. Its size
and activity on the far side of the Sun suggested that we could look
forward to a lot of activity in October.

"And so, it did. When solar flare X7.1/2b was observed on October 1
with a maximum at 2220 UT, the second largest in the current 11-year
cycle, I planned to start with this announcement. But when flare
X9.05, newly the largest in X-ray intensity in the same AR3842, was
observed on October 3 at 1218 UT, that was no longer the case.

"The source region of AR3842 was heading straight towards us. So,
the plasma cloud was probably heading directly for our ionosphere.
Unlike the aforementioned X7.1/2b (which thus moved to the third
largest), it is very likely that the CME of October 3 will hit
Earth. We therefore expect a disrupted end of the week.

"This weekend we can expect low MUF and high LUF on shortwave and
QSOs over aurora on VHF. Early next week will see a gradual return
to average and then above average radio wave propagation conditions
in the ionosphere."

From "The New Zealand Herald," Aurora in Auckland:

https://bit.ly/3NcNOde[1]

Radio Blackout hits U.S.:

https://bit.ly/3zNlkno[2]

https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video[3]

Here is the latest update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [11]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2 2024 were 189,
122, 148, 154, 150, 196, and 194, with a mean of 164.7. 10.7 cm flux
was 181.1, 186, 194.5, 197.2, 214.2, 244.6, and 274.4, with a mean
of 213.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 7, 7, 16, 11, 6,
and 7, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 5, 5, 17,
5, 9, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

�


[1] https://bit.ly/3NcNOde
[2] https://bit.ly/3zNlkno
[3] https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video
[4] https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4
[5] mailto:[email protected]
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/14/2024

Thanks to Carl, K9LA for contributing to this week's bulletin.

"SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2220 UTC/10 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A halo CME first observed on 09-Oct arrived at Earth at 10/1515UT, resulting in G4 geomagnetic conditions on 10-Oct. G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Oct, with a chance of G5. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G3 due to ongoing CME effects.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 11-13 OCTOBER 2024

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

11 Oct: G4, chance of G5

12 Oct: G2, chance of G3

13 Oct: G0-G1"

Only four new sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on October 4, another on October 6 and two more on October 7.

Average daily sunspot number moved from 160 (Sep 26-Oct 2 period) to 182 (Oct 3-9 period), and average daily solar flux from 199 to 270.

Predicted solar flux is 215 on October 11-13, 210 on October 14-15, 200 and 205 on October 16-17, and 170 on October 18-21, then 175, 180, 185, 190, 195, 215, 230, 240, 250 and 255 on October 22-31, then 230 and 215 on November 1-2, then 205 on November 3-4, 200 and 185 on November 5-6, 175 on November 7-12, and 170 on November 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index reveals a huge disturbance at 122, 42, 12 and 12 on October 11-14, 5 on October 15-21, then 15, 10, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on October 22-27, 5 on October 28 til November 2, 12 and 8 on November 3-4, 5 on November 5-7, 8 on November 8, and 5 on November 9-17.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for October 10, 2024 from OK1HH.

"During the first ten days of October, the number of sunspot groups dropped from eleven to five, but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot groups did not decrease. Not only are moderate flares (M-classes, of which 34 were observed) frequent, but large events (X-classes) are also relatively common (five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9 October). Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were also observed.

"After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western half of the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased significantly since 6 October. The most significant impacts on the state of the ionosphere were on 8 October. This will be followed by a very slow return to normal, lasting several days. A calm development can be expected after mid-October."

Reader Allison King sent this: https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP[1]

David Moore sent this. A new era of solar observation: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. �When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] �and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] �

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] �.

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8]

Also, check this. "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9 2024 were 194, 229, 180, 173, 167, 164, and 165, with a mean of 182. 10.7 cm flux was 245, 312, 291, 277, 265, 277 and 225, with a mean of 270. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 7, 16, 55, 58, and 19, with a mean of 24.4. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 6, 8, 13, 33, 29, and 15, with a mean of 16.


[1] https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/18/2024

Average daily sunspot numbers changed from 160 to 129.3 and average
daily solar flux from 261.3 to 194.3. Geomagnetic numbers were
higher, with planetary A index rising from 21.4 to 39.3.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 10,
two on October 13, two more October 14 and one more on October 15.

Predicted solar flux is 170, 160, and 165 on October 18-20, 170 on
October 21-22, 165 on October 23-24, 220 on October 25-26, then 225,
245, 235, 260, 245 and 235 on October 27 through November 1, and 230
on November 2-3, then 225 and 220 on November 4-5, 215 on November
6-8, 210 on November 9, 200 on November 10-12, and 205 on November
13-14 and 210 on November 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 12 and 5 on October 18-21,
then 15, 12 and 5 on October 22-24, then 5, 1, 2 and 8 on October
25-27, then 5 on October 28 to November 8, then 10 on November 9-10,
then 5 on November 11-12, 8 on November 13 and 5 on November 14-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 17, 2024 from OK1HH:

"A week ago, we witnessed a strong geomagnetic disturbance. It
peaked on 10 October and its effects in the ionosphere were
particularly evident on 11 October. The recovery from the
disturbance continued until 14 October, but was interrupted by a
further rise in geomagnetic activity on 15-16 October.

"Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were generally poor
throughout the period. They did not even improve to average levels.
This development was due to the coincidence with a decrease in total
solar activity."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98[1]

An article on the peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cyc le/[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 10 through 16 2024 were 150, 130, 95,
108, 146, 141, and 135, with a mean of 129.3. 10.7 cm flux was
216.3, 213.9, 213.6, 194.9, 181.9, 172, and 167.7, with a mean of
194.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 96, 116, 20, 5, 8, 15, and
15, with a mean of 30.3. Middle latitude A Index was 50, 68, 16, 3,
6, 9, and 11, with a mean of 23.3.

�


[1] https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98
[2] https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cycle/
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/25/2024

Key solar indicators were lower this week, with average daily solar
flux down from 194.3 to 170.5 and average daily sunspot numbers
declining from 129.3 to 127.7.

On October 22, Spaceweather.com[1] reported:

"THE SUN IS TAKING A QUICK BREAK: Solar Max is hard work. Just ask
the Sun. After flaring almost without pause for the past 10 months,
the Sun is taking a quick break. Solar activity has been low for the
past 48 hours with no flares stronger than category C. The quiet
won't last. Solar Max is expected to continue for at least another
year; flaring should resume shortly."

Predicted solar flux is 200 on October 25-26, then 205 and 215 on
October 27-28, then 220 on October 29-31, then 180, 185, 180 and 175
on November 1-4, 180 on November 5-6, 185 on November 7-8, 180 on
November 9, 175 on November 10-12, then 180 and 175 on November
13-14, 170 on November 15-16, 165 on November 17-18, and 160 and 165 on November 19-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18 and 7 on October 25-27, then 8
on October 28-29, 5 0n October 30 through November 10, then 12, 12,
8, 5, 12, 10, 5, 15 and 10 on November 11-19, and 5 on November
20-21, 12 on November 22 and 5 on November 23-30.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 24, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"NASA and NOAA announced in a joint statement on October 15, 2024
that a solar maximum is underway. This phase of the cycle may take 2
to 3 years to develop. For shortwave propagation, this implies that
the regular openings of the shortest bands will continue at least
through 2025, possibly longer.

"The author of these lines considers it likely that the current
11-year cycle will have two peaks, the first of which is taking
place now. In that case, we could expect the second peak in 2025.

"Coronagraphs aboard artificial Earth satellites provide invaluable
data for predicting solar activity. The Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory (SOHO) has been in operation for an unexpectedly long
time - it was launched in December 1995! Fortunately, the Sun is
still being similarly observed by GOES-19, although it is still
undergoing testing with instrument checks, including the
coronagraph, which we expect to be in regular use from Spring 2025.

"In the last two weeks or so, we have been able to observe the size
of AR3842 and AR3844 on the Sun's far side.

"AR3844, meanwhile, emerged on the southeastern limb of the solar
disk, was renamed AR3869, and immediately made itself known with a
powerful solar flare of class X3.3. It happened on October 24, with
the peak of the event at 0357 UT. The extreme ultraviolet radiation
from the flare ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere. The
Dellinger effect knocked out shortwaves to 30 MHz for nearly an hour
in the Australia and Southeast Asia region. The current CME has left
the Sun, but is unlikely to hit Earth (if it does, it could happen
on October 26).

"After the eruption, due to the increase in ionization of the
ionospheric F2 region between 0910 - 1050 UT, the 50 MHz magic band
between central and southern Europe and Japan (especially the
southern half of its large islands) was opened. However, the vast
majority of contacts were established at 50313 kHz (WSJT-X, FT8)."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 2024 were 146, 132, 101,
113, 168, 130, and 104, with a mean of 127.7. 10.7 cm flux was
167.7, 173.5, 165.2, 161.7, 163.9, 176.1, and 185.7, with a mean of
170.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 14, 23, 7, 5, 8, and 9,
with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 10, 15, 6, 3, 7,
and 7, with a mean of 7.9.

�


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/01/2024

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
went from 127.7 to 197.4 and average solar flux from 170.5 to 240.2.

Predicted solar flux is 270 on November 1-2, 265 and 260 on November
3-4, 250 on November 5-7, 214, 195 and 182 on November 8-10, 172,
168, 174 and 165 on November 11-14, and 162 on November 15-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 15, and 10 on November 1-4, 5
on November 5-15, then 5, 8, 5, 12, and 8 on November 16-20, and 5
on November 21 through December 5

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 31, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We know only approximately what the Earth's ionosphere looked like
between March 1755 and June 1766 thanks to observations of the Sun
in Solar Cycle 1. But we do know what it looked like in Solar Cycle
19, which ran from April 1954 to October 1964. Although I was a
novice radio amateur at the time, I can testify that the shortwave
propagation conditions at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 (1958) were
wonderful!

"As of December 2019, Solar Cycle 25 is in operation. It was
supposed to be low, fortunately it is not. Its maximum is now
underway, perhaps a second will follow next year. It is fabulous,
judging by the above and the many interesting effects, including,
for example, auroras. But unfortunately, not if we judge them by the
current conditions of ionospheric shortwave propagation. An
explanation of why this is now the case will surely be forthcoming -
but perhaps Solar Cycle 26 will be underway.

"A week ago, as expected, large active regions and corresponding
groups of spots appeared at the southeastern limb of the solar disk.
We are now seeing them near the central meridian. This has increased
the likelihood of Earth being hit by particles that will eject
subsequent flares. It seems that not only these, but also
disturbances in the geomagnetic field and then fluctuations in the
ionospheric propagation field can be counted on with certainty in
the coming days. Given that we have already seen simultaneously
observed active regions on the Sun during the last solar rotation,
presumably a 27-day recurrence will be a good aid to prediction."

How NASA tracks the Solar Cycles:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di[1]

The latest from the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence
Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [7]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 24 through 30 2024 were 138, 157, 181,
198, 288, 220, and 200, with a mean of 197.4. 10.7 cm flux was
196.6, 209.3, 238.4, 246.2, 255.5, 265.6, and 269.8, with a mean of
240.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 3, 14, 10, 17, 12, and
15, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 2, 11, 8, 11,
10, and 10, with a mean of 8.9.

�


[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di
[2] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/15/2024

Only five new sunspot groups emerged this week. First was on
November 7, next on November 9, two more on November 11, and another
on November 13.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 193.4 to 141.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 248.4 to 203.7.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on November 15-16, 155 on November
17-18, then 145 on November 19, 140 November 20-21, then 235, 240,
255 and 260 on November 22-25, 270 on November 26-27, then 255 and
250 on November 28-29, 240 on November 30 and December 1, 230 on
December 2-3, and 225 and 220 on December 4-5, then 225 on December 6-7, and 175, 170, and 175 on December 8-10, then 165 on December 11-14, 178 and 185 on December 15-16, 200 on December 17-18, then 235, 240, 255 and 260 on December 19-22.

Estimated planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 12 and 8 on November
15-19, 5 on November 20-24, 10 on November 25-26, then 8, 5, 5 and
10 on November 27-30, then 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on December 1-5, 12 on
December 6-8, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 9-11, 8 on December
12-13, then 5, 8, 5 and 12 on December 14-17.

From HMI Science Nuggets, a possible explanation for solar cycle
double peaks:

http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685[1]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 14, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Of the three active regions in the past few days, two have fallen
behind the western limb of the solar disk. Therefore, the solar flux
has dropped significantly. The third sunspot group was AR3889, which
crossed the central meridian midweek. Its size of over 400
millionths of the solar disk area, and in particular the optical 'F'
and magnetic 'Beta-Gamma-Delta' configurations, indicate that the
production of moderate size flares will continue. So, because it is
in the west, like most coronal holes, the solar wind should
intensify, and the Earth's magnetic field activity should increase.

"This development, in fact, has already begun on November 14. First,
conditions worsened after the polarity of the longitudinal component
of the interplanetary magnetic field changed to negative between
0200-0500 UTC, while the density of protons in the solar wind
increased. This was correctly followed by an increase in its
velocity from 350 km/s to 440 km/s. Due to the anticipated increase
in the solar wind, a further several days of turbulence is expected,
followed by calming down only during the following week."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13, 2024 were 164, 167, 176,
121, 138, 116, and 109, with a mean of 141.6. 10.7 cm flux was
239.2, 231, 220.9, 230.6, 182.2, 171.7, and 150.3, with a mean of
203.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 32, 25, 10, 5, and
7, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 24, 15, 7,
4, and 5, with a mean of 9.9.
�


[1] http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685
[2] https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY
[3] mailto:[email protected]
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/22/2024

Solar activity was lower this reporting week, November 14-20, with
the average daily sunspot number down from 141.6 to 99.3, and solar
flux from 203.7 to 152.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet.

This follows a period during August and October when it seemed we
must be at the peak of Solar Cycle 25. But we won't know that until
nearly a year after solar max, when a long moving average of daily
sunspot numbers is examined.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 22, 175 on November 23-24,
180 on November 25-26, 175 and 180 on November 27-28, 250 on
November 29-30, then 240, 230, 220, and 210 on December 1-4, 205 on
December 5-6, then 200, 180, 170 and 150 on December 7-10, 145 on
December 11-12, then 149, 145, and 230 on December 13-15, 235 on
December 16-17, 240 on December 18-20, 245 on December 21-22, then
240, 245 and 255 on December 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 22-25, 5 on November
26-29, then 10, 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on November 30 through December 5,
12 on December 6-7, then 10, 5, 5, 10, 15 and 10 on November 8-13,
then 8 on December 14-15, then 5 and 12 on December 16-17, and 5 on
December 18-21.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 21, 2024, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During November, solar activity was relatively lowest in the middle
of the month, which happened after the large sunspot groups in the
west of the disk had set and before the larger groups in the east
came out. The largest of these is designated AR3901 and will pass
through the central meridian on November 23. Solar activity will
therefore still increase slightly. A more significant rise could
perhaps be expected after the rise of the other groups, but their
current activity on the far side of the Sun does not appear to be
great for now.

"The low number and small area of coronal holes are the likely cause
of the geomagnetically quieter development, which is likely to
continue.

"November belongs to the Autumn DX season, Therefore we can expect
continued above-average shortwave propagation. They were admittedly
a little worse as a result of the drop in solar radiation, but the
rest of the month could, yet, correct this. Which is true for the
northern hemisphere of the Earth, where the season of favorable
propagation conditions on the longer shortwave bands is already
beginning!"

Images from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9[1]

From "Space Daily," solar orbiter images:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake[2]

https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2024 were 96, 71, 71,
117, 118, 109, and 113, with a mean of 99.3. 10.7 cm flux was 146.8,
148.9, 139.9, 146.3, 165, 157.2, and 162.6, with a mean of 152.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 8, 8, 4, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 7.3.

�


[1] https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9
[2] https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake
[3] https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/02/2024

ARRL Headquarters was closed on November 29. So, this regular Friday
bulletin was moved to the following Monday (12/2).

Solar activity increased during the current reporting week, November
21-27. Average daily sunspot number rose to 155.7, and average daily
solar flux was 282.2.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 28, 2024, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took
place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons
hit the Earth's atmosphere. This solar radiation storm had a greater
impact at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it
caused a significant increase in attenuation.

"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the
southeastern limb of the Sun. These produced moderate eruptions
daily, which is more or less normal for the 11-year maximum. These
are AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they
can be observed with the naked eye. There is a relatively small
coronal hole near them that could be influencing the solar wind
enhancement.

"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28-29, when a CME is
expected to impact. However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when
this information is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We
will see what happens next. It is quite possible that the plasma
cloud will only hit the Earth a little and it is also not out of the
question that it will miss the Earth completely. So, any prediction
at this point has a low probability of coming true."

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2024 were 148, 170, 156,
164, 140, 163, and 141, with a mean of 155.7. 10.7 cm flux was
166.2, 179.1, 199.9, 202.7, 220.4, 222.3, and 225, with a mean of
202.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 8, 7, 11, 7, and 5,
with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 10, 7, 7, 9, 6,
and 3, with a mean of 6.7.
�


[1] https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/06/2024

Solar activity seems to have dropped dramatically from a recent peak.� Are we over the cycle peak and headed down again?� Too early to say.

Daily average sunspot numbers this week sank to 120.1.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on December 6 to 8, 170 on December 9 and 10, 175 on December 11 and 12, and 205 on December 13 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December to 12, 10, 8 and 5 on December 13 to 15, 8 on December 16 to 18, 12 and 8 on December 19 and 20 and 5 on December 21 through January 6, 2025.

Commentary from OK1HH:

"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons hit the Earth's atmosphere.� This solar radiation storm had a greater impact at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it caused a significant increase in attenuation.

"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the southeastern limb of the Sun.� These produced moderate eruptions daily, which is more or less normal for the 11-year maximum.� These are AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye.� There is a relatively small coronal hole near them that could be influencing the solar wind enhancement.

"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28 and 29, when a CME is expected to impact.� However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when this information is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We will see what happens next.
It is quite possible that the plasma cloud will only hit the Earth a little and it is also not out of the question that it will miss the Earth completely.� So any prediction at this point has a low probability of coming true."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][1].� When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]�

More good information and tutorials are at http://k9la.us/[6].

Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

�Sunspot numbers for November 28 through December 4, 2024 were 149, 162, 103, 83, 113, 126, and 105, with a mean of 120.1.� 10.7 cm flux was 213.9, 219.8, 204, 186.3, 185.3, 174.2, and 174.7, with a mean of 202.2.� Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 11, 7, 6, 13, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.� Middle latitude A Index was 3, 6, 9, 6, 6, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.


[1] mailto:[email protected]
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Dec 06 2024 22:38:54

...AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye.

But would you really want to?

---
� Synchronet � End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

12/13/2024

Average daily sunspot number plummeted to 104.4.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for December 12, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The high solar activity in October this year suggests that this may have been the peak of an 11-year cycle.� This is not to say that solar activity will not continue to rise.� On the contrary, it may well be that the first maximum of the cycle took place in October and that we can look forward to a second maximum.� This could take place in 2025 or 2026 at the latest, but it will be followed by a decline.

"Solar activity in November was lower and December's is even lower. The expected geomagnetic disturbance, predicted for 29 November, did not take place because the CME did not affect the Earth.� However, the almost daily occurrence of moderate solar flares continued and a large flare occurred.� It happened on 8 December at around 0906 UT. However, even after this eruption no major geomagnetic disturbance followed and the changes in ionospheric shortwave propagation were rather random."

In December, the Sun is quieter, and large sunspot groups do not occur in its photosphere.� The only major active regions we see are to the south of the solar equator, and their area is about half that of those seen in November. However, the active area of AR3917 is slowly getting larger and with it the likelihood of a larger flare is increasing.

The Earth's ionosphere has been repeatedly affected in recent days by increased concentrations of solar-origin free electrons, which, while causing a slight rise in MUF, have been more pronounced in the ionosphere, causing scattering and hence attenuation, which has had a negative effect on the longer shortwave bands.

More meteors are arriving at Earth these days.� The swarm is called the Geminids and most meteors should arrive about December 14. Therefore we can observe more frequent occurrences of the sporadic E layer.� In addition to the occurrences of stronger signals on the longer shortwave bands, propagation through ionospheric waveguides is more frequent.� The sporadic layer may not only form one of the walls of the waveguide, but also enable its termination. Which is a good chance, for example, for QRP devotees.

Predicted solar flux is 165 on December 13 to 15, 160 and 165 December 16 and 17, 160 on December 18 and 19, then 175, 185, and 190 on December 20 to 22, 185 on December 23 and 24, 180 on December 25 and 26, and 180 on December 30 through January 2, 2025.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 13 and 14, 8 on January 15 and 16, 5 on January 17 to 20, then 8 on January 29.

Flare blasts South Africa:� https://bit.ly/3Do6nJJ[1]

STCE Newsletter Online version:

http://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[2]

PDF version:

http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20241212.pdf[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to [email protected][4].� When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. �

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .

�For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] .

More information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]

Check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST at https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for December 5 through 11 2024 were 101, 103, 91, 103, 94, 125, 114, with a mean of 104.4.� 10.7 cm flux was 174.6, 177.5, 182.5, 177.7 172.5, 171.9, and 160.5 with a mean of 170.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 11, 7, 6, 13, and 7, with a mean of 8.� Middle latitude A Index was 3, 6, 9, 6, 6, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 7.3.� �


[1] https://bit.ly/3Do6nJJ
[2] http://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[3] http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20241212.pdf
[4] mailto:[email protected]
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/20/2024

Excellent HF conditions greeted hams in the ARRL 10-Meter contest
last weekend. Recent indicators show a sudden shift to two digit
daily sunspot numbers from three, and although there is nothing
significant about 100, it makes one notice.

All daily sunspot numbers this week were 97 or less.

Perhaps this indicates a move off of solar maximum, or to a future
with a second maximum.

Solar activity was way, way down this week with an average daily
sunspot number at just 88.

Predicted solar flux is 175, 180, 180, 185 and 180 on December
20-24, 175 on December 25-26, 180 on December 27, 185 on December
28-29, 180 on December 30 through January 2, 2025, and 175 on
January 3-4, 170 on January 5-6, 160 on January 7-8, then 165, 179,
165, and 170 on January 9-12, 165 on January 13-14, 170 on January
15-16, 175 on January 17-18, 180 on January 19-23, and 185 on
January 24-25.

The forecast for Planetary A index shows a quiet 5 on December
20-22, 8 on December 23-24, and 5 on December 25 through January 4,
2025, then 15 and 8 on January 5-6, 5 on January 7-9, then 12, 10
and 8 on January 10-12, and 5 on January 13-31.

OK1HH does not seem to have a commentary this week.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wClI7PKn3K0[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to [email protected][2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18 2024 were 91, 82, 86, 97,
90, 88, and 82 with a mean of 88. 10.7 cm flux was 172, 163.7,
170.5, 172, 166.7, 170, and 173.5 with a mean of 169.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 4, 10, 12, 14, 29, and 15, with a mean
of 12.9. Middle latitude A Index was 4, 2, 8, 9, 11, 20, and 12,
with a mean of 9.4.

�


[1] https://youtu.be/wClI7PKn3K0
[2] mailto:[email protected]
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/30/2024

Strong solar activity continues, with worldwide propagation on 10
and 12 meters quite commonplace.

Predicted solar flux is 255, 250, 210, 200, and 195 on December 30,
2024 through January 3, 2025, 190 on January 4-5, 170 on January 6,
160 on January 7-8, then 165, 170 and 165 on January 9-11, 170 on
January 12-13, 175 on January 14-15, 180 on January 16, 185 on
January 17-18, 200 on January 19-23, 185 on January 24-26, 175 on
January 27, and 180 on January 28-30, 2025.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 50, 20 and 8 on December 30, 2024
through January 2, 2025, 5 on January 3-4, 8 on January 5-6, 5 on
January 7-9, then 12, 10 and 8 on January 10-12, 5 on January 13-15,
then 8, 10 and 10 on January 16-18, 8 on January 19-23, and 5 on
January 24-31.

The latest from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"A cooling water pipe burst in the server room of the Joint Science
Operations Center (JSOC) at the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in
California on 26 November 2024. Since then, data from the
Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Atmospheric Imaging Array
(AIA) instruments have been unavailable.

"On the popular website https://www.solarham.com/[1] on the bottom
left, we usually find information on activity on the far side of the
Sun (at https://www.solarham.com/farside.htm[2]) that would be needed
to predict developments around the Christmas season, for example.
This is because we were expecting the rise of active regions on the
Sun that were very active during the last solar revolution and whose
high activity we know about thanks to CMEs and the influx of protons
from flares on the Sun's far side.

"As expected, active regions on the Sun did appear and they were not
alone. Moderate solar flares are the order of the day, while we have
been expecting a geomagnetic disturbance during the Christmas
holidays since after the CME registration. But the particle clouds
missed the Earth, the disturbance did not take place, and
ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions remained above average.

"But even better propagation conditions are likely to await us next
year. The high solar activity in October this year was probably not
yet the peak of the 25th cycle - that is yet to come!"

From Space.Com, "The Sun in 2025: How the solar cycle will shape our
year ahead":

https://bit.ly/3DA4N7L[3]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/qPI4_otUAME[4]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at, http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at, http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for December 19 through 25, 2024 were 96, 148, 152,
176, 199, 219, and 218 with a mean of 172.6. 10.7 cm flux was 175,
184, 201.2, 223.3, 238.3, 258.5, and 252.7 with a mean of 219.
Planetary A index was 11, 13, 16, 14, 12, 12, and 5 with an average
of 11.9. Middle latitude A Index was 9, 10, 13, 15, 11, 9, and 5,
with a mean of 10.3.

�


[1] https://www.solarham.com/
[2] https://www.solarham.com/farside.htm
[3] https://bit.ly/3DA4N7L
[4] https://youtu.be/qPI4_otUAME
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
� Synchronet � Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS